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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2025/26 · Men
26 Oct 2025 · ODI
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 48%; United States of America batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kushal Bhurtelcaught · Smit Patel · R Ugarkar0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Smit Patel · b R Ugarkar | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Aasif Sheikhcaught · Saiteja Mukkamalla · Harmeet Singh 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Saiteja Mukkamalla · b Harmeet Singh | 37 | 39 | 4 | 1 | 94.87 |
| B Sharkibowled · Shubham Ranjane 2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Shubham Ranjane | 29 | 50 | 2 | 1 | 58.00 |
 Rohit Kumarcaught · Saiteja Mukkamalla · Shubham Ranjane0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saiteja Mukkamalla · b Shubham Ranjane | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 10.53 |
United States of America's chances ranged from 41% to 100% during the match (Nepal: 0% to 59%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| run out · NP Kenjige |
| 20 |
| 27 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 74.07 |
 Dipendra Singh Aireestumped · Smit Patel · Harmeet Singh3 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Smit Patel · b Harmeet Singh | 40 | 60 | 3 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
 Gulsan Jhacaught · Smit Patel · Harmeet Singh0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Smit Patel · b Harmeet Singh | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 21.43 |
|---|
 Sompal Kamicaught and bowled · Harmeet Singh0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Harmeet Singh | 11 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 91.67 |
|---|
 Karan KClbw · Harmeet Singh0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Harmeet Singh | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
 Sandeep Lamichhanecaught · Jasdeep Singh · Harmeet Singh0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jasdeep Singh · b Harmeet Singh | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Lalit Rajbanshinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R Ugarkar0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 6.33 | 3 | 0 |
| Saurabh Netravalkar2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 1.86 | 0 | 0 |
| Jasdeep Singh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Shubham Ranjane1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 32 | 2 | 3.56 | 1 | 0 |
| Harmeet Singh1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.1 | 1 | 27 | 6 | 3.31 | 1 | 0 |
| Milind Kumar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 2.75 | 1 | 0 |
1-0 (Kushal Bhurtel, 0.2) · 2-69 (B Sharki, 14.5) · 3-69 (Aasif Sheikh, 15.2) · 4-79 (Rohit Kumar, 20.4) · 5-105 (Aarif Sheikh, 26.1) · 6-112 (Gulsan Jha, 30.1) · 7-138 (Sompal Kami, 35.3) · 8-146 (Karan KC, 37.2) · 9-146 (Sandeep Lamichhane, 37.3) · 10-156 (Dipendra Singh Airee, 39.1)
Recorded target: 263 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 3 | 4/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 6/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 8/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 14/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 17/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 22/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 25/1 |
| 9 | 0 | 25/1 |
| 10 | 10 | 35/1 |
| 11 | 10 | 45/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 49/1 |
| 13 | 10 | 59/1 |
| 14 | 7 | 66/1 |
| 15 | 3 | 69/2 |
| 16 | 1 | 70/3 |
| 17 | 2 | 72/3 |
| 18 | 4 | 76/3 |
| 19 | 1 | 77/3 |
| 20 | 2 | 79/3 |
| 21 | 0 | 79/4 |
| 22 | 7 | 86/4 |
| 23 | 4 | 90/4 |
| 24 | 3 | 93/4 |
| 25 | 1 | 94/4 |
| 26 | 11 | 105/4 |
| 27 | 0 | 105/5 |
| 28 | 2 | 107/5 |
| 29 | 2 | 109/5 |
| 30 | 3 | 112/5 |
| 31 | 6 | 118/6 |
| 32 | 5 | 123/6 |
| 33 | 5 | 128/6 |
| 34 | 3 | 131/6 |
| 35 | 5 | 136/6 |
| 36 | 2 | 138/7 |
| 37 | 8 | 146/7 |
| 38 | 0 | 146/9 |
| 39 | 9 | 155/9 |
| 40 | 1 | 156/10 |
Shubham Ranjane: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
