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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024 · Men
16 Sept 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Namibia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Namibia started on 63%; Namibia batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael van Lingencaught · Saiteja Mukkamalla · J Drysdale 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saiteja Mukkamalla · b J Drysdale | 5 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 21.74 |
| Jean-Pierre Kotzelbw · J Drysdale 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b J Drysdale | 8 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 53.33 |
| Jan Frylinckbowled · Jasdeep Singh 7 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jasdeep Singh | 70 | 88 | 7 | 0 | 79.55 |
| Gerhard Erasmusbowled · Milind Kumar 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Milind Kumar | 27 | 49 | 4 | 0 | 55.10 |
 Malan Krugerlbw · Milind Kumar0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Milind Kumar | 1 |
Namibia's chances ranged from 0% to 70% during the match (United States of America: 31% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
| JJ Smitbowled · Saurabh Netravalkar 3 fours · 3 sixes | bowled · b Saurabh Netravalkar | 49 | 75 | 3 | 3 | 65.33 |
|---|
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eatoncaught · Monank Patel · Nosthush Kenjige 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Monank Patel · b Nosthush Kenjige | 17 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 58.62 |
|---|
| Jan-Izak de Villierscaught and bowled · Harmeet Singh 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Harmeet Singh | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
| Bernard Scholtzcaught · Monank Patel · Saurabh Netravalkar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Monank Patel · b Saurabh Netravalkar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Tangeni Lungameninot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Ben Shikongonot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 8 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saurabh Netravalkar2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 41 | 2 | 4.10 | 0 | 0 |
| J Drysdale1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 16 | 2 | 2.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Jasdeep Singh0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 4.89 | 3 | 1 |
| Nosthush Kenjige2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 28 | 1 | 2.80 | 0 | 0 |
| Harmeet Singh0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 48 | 1 | 4.80 | 3 | 1 |
| Milind Kumar0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 3.60 | 2 | 0 |
1-12 (Jean-Pierre Kotze, 5.1) · 2-19 (Michael van Lingen, 8.0) · 3-94 (Gerhard Erasmus, 24.2) · 4-98 (Malan Kruger, 25.0) · 5-128 (Jan Frylinck, 34.4) · 6-167 (Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton, 44.0) · 7-177 (Jan-Izak de Villiers, 46.0) · 8-188 (Bernard Scholtz, 46.5) · 9-196 (JJ Smit, 48.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 6/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 12/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 12/0 |
| 6 | 0 | 12/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 18/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 19/2 |
| 9 | 8 | 27/2 |
| 10 | 0 | 27/2 |
| 11 | 1 | 28/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 29/2 |
| 13 | 4 | 33/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 35/2 |
| 15 | 10 | 45/2 |
| 16 | 1 | 46/2 |
| 17 | 3 | 49/2 |
| 18 | 7 | 56/2 |
| 19 | 4 | 60/2 |
| 20 | 4 | 64/2 |
| 21 | 7 | 71/2 |
| 22 | 6 | 77/2 |
| 23 | 7 | 84/2 |
| 24 | 9 | 93/2 |
| 25 | 5 | 98/4 |
| 26 | 7 | 105/4 |
| 27 | 1 | 106/4 |
| 28 | 2 | 108/4 |
| 29 | 3 | 111/4 |
| 30 | 3 | 114/4 |
| 31 | 4 | 118/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 120/4 |
| 33 | 5 | 125/4 |
| 34 | 1 | 126/4 |
| 35 | 3 | 129/5 |
| 36 | 5 | 134/5 |
| 37 | 7 | 141/5 |
| 38 | 1 | 142/5 |
| 39 | 2 | 144/5 |
| 40 | 0 | 144/5 |
| 41 | 5 | 149/5 |
| 42 | 7 | 156/5 |
| 43 | 5 | 161/5 |
| 44 | 6 | 167/6 |
| 45 | 4 | 171/6 |
| 46 | 6 | 177/7 |
| 47 | 11 | 188/8 |
| 48 | 8 | 196/8 |
| 49 | 1 | 197/9 |
| 50 | 2 | 199/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
