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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024 · Men
16 Sept 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Namibia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Namibia started on 63%; Namibia batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smit Patelcaught · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton · Tangeni Lungameni 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton · b Tangeni Lungameni | 9 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 36.00 |
| Sushant Modanirun out · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton · Tangeni Lungameni 2 fours · 2 sixes | run out · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton | 36 | 36 | 2 | 2 | 100.00 |
| Monank Patelbowled · Gerhard Erasmus 7 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Gerhard Erasmus | 72 | 82 | 7 | 1 | 87.80 |
| Saiteja Mukkamallanot out 3 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 59* | 71 | 3 | 1 | 83.10 |
| Milind Kumarlbw · Gerhard Erasmus 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Gerhard Erasmus | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Namibia's chances ranged from 0% to 70% during the match (United States of America: 31% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| not out |
| 21* |
| 33 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 63.64 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ben Shikongo0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 4.17 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan-Izak de Villiers1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.3 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 4.62 | 2 | 0 |
| Tangeni Lungameni1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.5 | 1 | 34 | 1 | 4.98 | 0 | 0 |
| Bernard Scholtz0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 53 | 0 | 5.30 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Gerhard Erasmus0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 34 | 2 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-25 (Smit Patel, 8.0) · 2-57 (Sushant Modani, 13.3) · 3-163 (Monank Patel, 32.1) · 4-163 (Milind Kumar, 32.2)
Recorded target: 200 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 7/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 7/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 9/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 14/0 |
| 7 | 10 | 24/0 |
| 8 | 1 | 25/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 29/1 |
| 10 | 0 | 29/1 |
| 11 | 8 | 37/1 |
| 12 | 5 | 42/1 |
| 13 | 11 | 53/1 |
| 14 | 8 | 61/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 65/2 |
| 16 | 5 | 70/2 |
| 17 | 9 | 79/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 82/2 |
| 19 | 6 | 88/2 |
| 20 | 7 | 95/2 |
| 21 | 3 | 98/2 |
| 22 | 5 | 103/2 |
| 23 | 5 | 108/2 |
| 24 | 6 | 114/2 |
| 25 | 4 | 118/2 |
| 26 | 9 | 127/2 |
| 27 | 3 | 130/2 |
| 28 | 3 | 133/2 |
| 29 | 6 | 139/2 |
| 30 | 4 | 143/2 |
| 31 | 6 | 149/2 |
| 32 | 10 | 159/2 |
| 33 | 5 | 164/4 |
| 34 | 5 | 169/4 |
| 35 | 2 | 171/4 |
| 36 | 2 | 173/4 |
| 37 | 4 | 177/4 |
| 38 | 3 | 180/4 |
| 39 | 4 | 184/4 |
| 40 | 9 | 193/4 |
| 41 | 4 | 197/4 |
| 42 | 3 | 200/4 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
