**Hagley Oval, Christchurch**
Photo: Michal Klajban
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Super Smash · 2023/24 · Men

CanterburyversusAuckland

7 Jan 2024 · T20

Hagley Oval, Christchurch · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Auckland won by 8 wickets

Canterbury20.0 overs140/5 Auckland15.2 overs141/2 Hagley Oval, Christchurch ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Canterbury started on 57%; Canterbury batted first.

Canterbury’s chance of winning (%) · Auckland is the rest

Canterbury's chances ranged from 0% to 72% during the match (Auckland: 29% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.4: LH Ferguson to TWM Latham, TWM Latham out. Auckland up from 32% to 42%.
2.5: DK Ferns to CJ Bowes, CJ Bowes out. Auckland up from 44% to 56%.
2nd inns 3.4: ZGF Foulkes to SM Solia, SM Solia out. Canterbury up from 24% to 34%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.