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ICC Women's Championship · 2026 · Women
6 May 2026 · ODI
National Stadium, Karachi · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 69%; Pakistan batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelis Ndhlovubowled · Momina Riasat 6 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Momina Riasat | 32 | 51 | 6 | 0 | 62.75 |
| C Mutasacaught · Gull Feroza · Diana Baig 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gull Feroza · b Diana Baig | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Kelly Ndirayabowled · Fatima Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Fatima Sana | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| B Bizacaught · Gull Feroza · Rameen Shamim 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gull Feroza · b Rameen Shamim | 29 | 51 | 4 | 0 | 56.86 |
| R Pasipanodyanot out 4 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 33* | 62 | 4 | 0 | 53.23 |
| VM Mutungwindubowled · Rameen Shamim0 fours · 0 sixes |
Pakistan's chances ranged from 69% to 100% during the match (Zimbabwe: 0% to 31%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Rameen Shamim |
| 0 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| A Zimunucaught · Fatima Sana · Syeda Aroob Shah 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Fatima Sana · b Syeda Aroob Shah | 6 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| M Mavungabowled · Syeda Aroob Shah 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Syeda Aroob Shah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Nomvelo Sibandahit wicket · Momina Riasat 0 fours · 0 sixes | hit wicket · b Momina Riasat | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 8.33 |
|---|
| L Mabherocaught · Diana Baig · Fatima Sana 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Diana Baig · b Fatima Sana | 20 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 76.92 |
|---|
| O Charecaught · Najiha Alvi · Fatima Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Najiha Alvi · b Fatima Sana | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fatima Sana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 15 | 3 | 2.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Diana Baig1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 23 | 1 | 3.29 | 3 | 0 |
| Momina Riasat0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 39 | 2 | 4.88 | 3 | 0 |
| Rameen Shamim2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 2 | 20 | 2 | 2.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Syeda Aroob Shah1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 18 | 2 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Ayesha Zafar1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (C Mutasa, 1.2) · 2-9 (Kelly Ndiraya, 2.5) · 3-66 (Kelis Ndhlovu, 16.1) · 4-76 (B Biza, 21.3) · 5-80 (VM Mutungwindu, 23.3) · 6-90 (A Zimunu, 26.5) · 7-90 (M Mavunga, 27.0) · 8-106 (Nomvelo Sibanda, 32.1) · 9-137 (L Mabhero, 38.5) · 10-137 (O Chare, 39.0)
Recorded target: 344 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 8/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 9/2 |
| 4 | 1 | 10/2 |
| 5 | 4 | 14/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 18/2 |
| 7 | 1 | 19/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 25/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 29/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 31/2 |
| 11 | 9 | 40/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 42/2 |
| 13 | 5 | 47/2 |
| 14 | 10 | 57/2 |
| 15 | 6 | 63/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 66/2 |
| 17 | 2 | 68/3 |
| 18 | 4 | 72/3 |
| 19 | 2 | 74/3 |
| 20 | 1 | 75/3 |
| 21 | 1 | 76/3 |
| 22 | 0 | 76/4 |
| 23 | 4 | 80/4 |
| 24 | 0 | 80/5 |
| 25 | 6 | 86/5 |
| 26 | 2 | 88/5 |
| 27 | 2 | 90/7 |
| 28 | 5 | 95/7 |
| 29 | 2 | 97/7 |
| 30 | 0 | 97/7 |
| 31 | 5 | 102/7 |
| 32 | 4 | 106/7 |
| 33 | 2 | 108/8 |
| 34 | 5 | 113/8 |
| 35 | 3 | 116/8 |
| 36 | 4 | 120/8 |
| 37 | 10 | 130/8 |
| 38 | 6 | 136/8 |
| 39 | 1 | 137/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.