IndiaversusNamibia

12 Feb 2026 · T20

Arun Jaitley Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 93 runs

India20.0 overs209/9 Namibia18.2 overs116/10 Arun Jaitley Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

90%India10%Namibia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Namibia (1,855 vs 1,565 on our results rating)
India are playing at home in India
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 1 and Namibia won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 89%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Namibia is the rest

India's chances ranged from 82% to 100% during the match (Namibia: 0% to 18%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.4: Arshdeep Singh to JN Frylinck, JN Frylinck out. India up from 84% to 90%.
2nd inns 7.1: CV Varun to L Steenkamp, L Steenkamp out. India up from 83% to 89%.
2nd inns 9.2: CV Varun to JN Loftie-Eaton, JN Loftie-Eaton out. India up from 85% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India209/9 Namibia116/10

Innings 1

India

209/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Ishan Kishancaught · Ben Shikongo · Gerhard Erasmus 6 fours · 5 sixes	caught · Ben Shikongo · b Gerhard Erasmus	61	24	6	5	254.17
Sanju Samsoncaught · Louren Steenkamp · Ben Shikongo 1 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Louren Steenkamp · b Ben Shikongo	22	8	1	3	275.00
Tilak Varmacaught · JJ Smit · Gerhard Erasmus 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · JJ Smit · b Gerhard Erasmus	25	21	3	0	119.05
Suryakumar Yadav

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Ruben Trumpelmann0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	0	9.50	2
Ben Shikongo0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	41	1	13.67	0
JJ Smit0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	50	1	12.50	0
M Heingo0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	18	0	18.00	0
Gerhard Erasmus0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	4	5.00	1
Bernard Scholtz0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	41	1	10.25	6

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	17	25/1
3	10	35/1
4	8	43/1
5	15	58/1
6	28	86/1
7	18	104/1
8	1	105/2
9	5	110/2
10	10	120/2
11	2	122/3
12	2	124/4
13	10	134/4
14	10	144/4
15	24	168/4
16	16	184/4
17	6	190/4
18	9	199/4
19	7	206/7
20	3	209/9

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.