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Bulgaria Tri-Nation T20I Series · 2025 · Men
11 Jul 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Gibraltar more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Turkey started on 29%; Turkey batted first.
Turkey's chances ranged from 0% to 29% during the match (Gibraltar: 71% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA Raikescaught · Muhammad Fahad · Serdar Burak Emir 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Muhammad Fahad · b Serdar Burak Emir | 13 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 162.50 |
| M Raikesnot out 6 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 59* | 37 | 6 | 2 | 159.46 |
| L Brucecaught · Hasan Yanar · A Turkmen 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hasan Yanar · b A Turkmen | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| IDM Latincaught · Serdar Burak Emir · Zafer Durmaz 10 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Serdar Burak Emir · b Zafer Durmaz | 65 | 41 | 10 | 2 | 158.54 |
| K Mirpurinot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 9* | 6 | 0 | 1 | 150.00 |
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Turkmen0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Serdar Burak Emir0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 12.50 | 1 | 1 |
| Muhammad Fahad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
| GG Alta0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 12.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Ilyas Ataullah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 13.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Zafer Durmaz0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mustafa Balkis0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 0.5 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 10.80 | 1 | 0 |
1-13 (PA Raikes, 1.2) · 2-27 (L Bruce, 2.2) · 3-140 (IDM Latin, 14.0)
Recorded target: 150 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 18 | 27/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 31/2 |
| 4 | 6 | 37/2 |
| 5 | 11 | 48/2 |
| 6 | 12 | 60/2 |
| 7 | 8 | 68/2 |
| 8 | 10 | 78/2 |
| 9 | 12 | 90/2 |
| 10 | 7 | 97/2 |
| 11 | 6 | 103/2 |
| 12 | 17 | 120/2 |
| 13 | 13 | 133/2 |
| 14 | 7 | 140/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 144/3 |
| 16 | 9 | 153/3 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.