Sydney SixersversusSydney Thunder

24 Jan 2025 · T20

Sydney Cricket Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sydney Thunder won by 4 wickets

Sydney Sixers20.0 overs151/7 Sydney Thunder18.5 overs157/6 Sydney Cricket Ground ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sydney Sixers started on 57%; Sydney Sixers batted first.

Sydney Sixers’s chance of winning (%) · Sydney Thunder is the rest

Sydney Sixers's chances ranged from 0% to 62% during the match (Sydney Thunder: 38% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.4: WA Agar to KR Patterson, KR Patterson out. Sydney Thunder up from 51% to 63%.
2nd inns 17.3: H Kerr to GHS Garton, GHS Garton out. Sydney Sixers up from 20% to 35%.
2nd inns 17.6: H Kerr to SW Billings, six by SW Billings. Sydney Thunder up from 66% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.