NetherlandsversusIreland

26 Aug 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Ireland won by 7 wickets

Netherlands18.5 overs110/10 Ireland19.1 overs111/3 Hazelaarweg, Rotterdam ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Ireland more likely to win

34%Netherlands66%Ireland

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Ireland won 9 and Netherlands won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, Ireland rate stronger than Netherlands (1,720 vs 1,671 on our results rating)
Netherlands are playing at home in the Netherlands

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Netherlands started on 32%; Netherlands batted first.

Netherlands’s chance of winning (%) · Ireland is the rest

Netherlands's chances ranged from 0% to 38% during the match (Ireland: 62% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.6: O Prendergast to P Molkenboer, P Molkenboer out. Ireland up from 67% to 75%.
6.4: AN Kelly to MM Dekeling, MM Dekeling out. Ireland up from 67% to 73%.
12.3: L Paul to F Overdijk, F Overdijk out. Ireland up from 62% to 68%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Netherlands110/10 Ireland111/3

Innings 1

Netherlands

110/1018.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Netherlands batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
P Molkenboerbowled · Orla Prendergast 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Orla Prendergast	9	12	2	0	75.00
MM Dekelinglbw · Arlene Kelly 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Arlene Kelly	9	19	1	0	47.37
Babette de Leedelbw · Leah Paul 3 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Leah Paul	23	20	3	0	115.00
Robine Rijkestumped · CE Coulter Reilly · Arlene Kelly 2 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · CE Coulter Reilly · b Arlene Kelly	25	27	2	0	92.59
Frederique Overdijkrun out · CE Coulter Reilly, Gaby Lewis · Leah Paul 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · CE Coulter Reilly, Gaby Lewis	3	5	0	0	60.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Orla Prendergast0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	6	1	2.00	1
Jane Maguire0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	1	5.75	2
LA McBride0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	21	0	10.50	0
Arlene Kelly0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	14	5	3.65	1
Cara Murray0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	21	0	7.00	1
Laura Delany0 maidens · 9 wides · 0 no-balls	0.3	10	0	20.00	9
Leah Paul0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.3	11	2	4.40	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	8	10/0
3	1	11/1
4	8	19/1
5	3	22/1
6	14	36/1
7	1	37/2
8	10	47/2
9	4	51/2
10	5	56/2
11	11	67/3
12	10	77/3
13	6	83/4
14	6	89/4
15	4	93/5
16	3	96/6
17	1	97/8
18	5	102/8
19	8	110/10

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