NottinghamshireversusLancashire

3 Jul 2026 · T20

Trent Bridge · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Nottinghamshire won by 1 runs

Nottinghamshire20.0 overs181/6 Lancashire20.0 overs180/7 Trent Bridge ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nottinghamshire started on 51%; Nottinghamshire batted first.

Nottinghamshire’s chance of winning (%) · Lancashire is the rest

Nottinghamshire's chances ranged from 3% to 65% during the match (Lancashire: 35% to 97%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.1: GF Linde to MA Jones, MA Jones out. Nottinghamshire up from 31% to 44%.
2nd inns 19.5: OP Stone to J Moores, J Moores out. Nottinghamshire up from 33% to 58%.
2nd inns 19.6: OP Stone to JM Blatherwick, MF Hurst out. Nottinghamshire up from 58% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nottinghamshire181/6 Lancashire180/7

Innings 1