**Centurion Park**
Photo: shodan
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2025/26 · Men

Joburg Super KingsversusPretoria Capitals

27 Dec 2025 · T20

Centurion Park · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Joburg Super Kings won by 22 runs

Joburg Super Kings20.0 overs168/6 Pretoria Capitals20.0 overs146/9 Centurion Park ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Joburg Super Kings started on 46%; Joburg Super Kings batted first.

Joburg Super Kings’s chance of winning (%) · Pretoria Capitals is the rest

Joburg Super Kings's chances ranged from 16% to 100% during the match (Pretoria Capitals: 0% to 84%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 10.3: D Jansen to SD Hope, SD Hope out. Joburg Super Kings up from 30% to 44%.
2nd inns 12.2: D Jansen to B Parsons, B Parsons out. Joburg Super Kings up from 51% to 67%.
2nd inns 12.5: D Jansen to C Esterhuizen, C Esterhuizen out. Joburg Super Kings up from 70% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Joburg Super Kings168/6 Pretoria Capitals146/9

Innings 1