New ZealandversusBangladesh

27 Apr 2026 · T20

Chittagong Divisional Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 6 wickets

New Zealand20.0 overs182/6 Bangladesh18.0 overs183/4 Chittagong Divisional Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

69%New Zealand31%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, New Zealand rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,662 vs 1,520 on our results rating)
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, New Zealand won 6 and Bangladesh won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 67%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 0% to 89% during the match (Bangladesh: 11% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 14.5: JA Clarkson to Parvez Hossain Emon, Parvez Hossain Emon out. New Zealand up from 35% to 48%.
2nd inns 15.4: NG Smith to Shamim Hossain, six by Shamim Hossain. Bangladesh up from 53% to 67%.
2nd inns 15.6: NG Smith to Towhid Hridoy, six by Towhid Hridoy. Bangladesh up from 67% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand182/6 Bangladesh183/4

Innings 2

Bangladesh

183/418.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Saif Hassancaught · Bevon Jacobs · Nathan Smith 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Bevon Jacobs · b Nathan Smith	17	16	2	1	106.25
Tanzid Hasancaught · Nathan Smith · Ish Sodhi 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nathan Smith · b Ish Sodhi	20	25	1	0	80.00
Litton Dasbowled · Ish Sodhi 2 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Ish Sodhi	21	15	2	1	140.00
Tawhid Hridoynot out 2 fours · 3 sixes	not out	51*	27	2	3	188.89
Parvez Hossain Emoncaught · Tim Robinson · Josh Clarkson1 fours · 2 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Nathan Smith0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	33	1	11.00	3	0
Matthew Fisher0 maidens · 2 wides · 2 no-balls	4.0	53	0	13.25	2	2
Benjamin Lister0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	0	5.75	1	0
Ish Sodhi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	2	10.00	0	0
Josh Clarkson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	28	1	9.33	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	11	11/0
2	4	15/0
3	3	18/0
4	14	32/0
5	8	40/0
6	4	44/1
7	7	51/1
8	5	56/1
9	10	66/2
10	11	77/2
11	18	95/3
12	13	108/3
13	11	119/3
14	6	125/3
15	10	135/4
16	18	153/4
17	25	178/4
18	5	183/4

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