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ICC Champions Trophy · 2024/25 · Men
20 Feb 2025 · ODI
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 17%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rohit Sharmacaught · Rishad Hossain · Taskin Ahmed7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rishad Hossain · b Taskin Ahmed | 41 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 113.89 |
 Shubman Gillnot out9 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 101* | 129 | 9 | 2 | 78.29 |
 Virat Kohlicaught · Soumya Sarkar · Rishad Hossain1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Soumya Sarkar · b Rishad Hossain | 22 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 57.89 |
 Shreyas Iyercaught · Najmul Hossain Shanto · Mustafizur Rahman2 fours · 0 sixes |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 34% during the match (India: 66% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Najmul Hossain Shanto · b Mustafizur Rahman |
| 15 |
| 17 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 88.24 |
 Axar Patelcaught and bowled · Rishad Hossain1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Rishad Hossain | 8 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
 KL Rahulnot out1 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 41* | 47 | 1 | 2 | 87.23 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Taskin Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Mustafizur Rahman0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 62 | 1 | 6.89 | 1 | 0 |
 Tanzim Hasan Sakib0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.3 | 0 | 58 | 0 | 6.82 | 2 | 0 |
 Mehedi Hasan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 3.70 | 0 | 0 |
 Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 3.80 | 0 | 0 |
1-69 (Rohit Sharma, 9.5) · 2-112 (Virat Kohli, 22.4) · 3-133 (Shreyas Iyer, 27.4) · 4-144 (Axar Patel, 30.1)
Recorded target: 229 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 11 | 22/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 23/0 |
| 6 | 12 | 35/0 |
| 7 | 6 | 41/0 |
| 8 | 10 | 51/0 |
| 9 | 14 | 65/0 |
| 10 | 4 | 69/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 70/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 72/1 |
| 13 | 3 | 75/1 |
| 14 | 3 | 78/1 |
| 15 | 6 | 84/1 |
| 16 | 4 | 88/1 |
| 17 | 3 | 91/1 |
| 18 | 3 | 94/1 |
| 19 | 3 | 97/1 |
| 20 | 4 | 101/1 |
| 21 | 3 | 104/1 |
| 22 | 7 | 111/1 |
| 23 | 1 | 112/2 |
| 24 | 6 | 118/2 |
| 25 | 4 | 122/2 |
| 26 | 2 | 124/2 |
| 27 | 2 | 126/2 |
| 28 | 8 | 134/3 |
| 29 | 4 | 138/3 |
| 30 | 6 | 144/3 |
| 31 | 1 | 145/4 |
| 32 | 6 | 151/4 |
| 33 | 3 | 154/4 |
| 34 | 4 | 158/4 |
| 35 | 3 | 161/4 |
| 36 | 4 | 165/4 |
| 37 | 7 | 172/4 |
| 38 | 3 | 175/4 |
| 39 | 11 | 186/4 |
| 40 | 3 | 189/4 |
| 41 | 6 | 195/4 |
| 42 | 3 | 198/4 |
| 43 | 3 | 201/4 |
| 44 | 9 | 210/4 |
| 45 | 11 | 221/4 |
| 46 | 2 | 223/4 |
| 47 | 8 | 231/4 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Hardik Pandya: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Tanzim Hasan Sakib: Cricket Today · CC BY 3.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jaker Ali: Press Information Department · Public domain
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Soumya Sarkar: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Mohammed Shami: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mushfiqur Rahim: Rasi56 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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