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ICC Women's T20I Challenge Trophy · 2026 · Women
24 Apr 2026 · T20
Gahanga International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Vanuatu started on 40%; Vanuatu batted first.
Vanuatu's chances ranged from 22% to 98% during the match (Nepal: 2% to 78%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samjhana Khadkabowled · R Andrew 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b R Andrew | 24 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 126.32 |
 Bindu Rawalbowled · Selina Solman0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Selina Solman | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12.50 |
| Puja Mahatolbw · V Vira 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b V Vira | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
| R Poddarcaught · M Tarimiala · Selina Solman 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · M Tarimiala · b Selina Solman | 7 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 77.78 |
| I Barmacaught and bowled · N Navaika 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b N Navaika | 13 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 144.44 |
| K Kunwarrun out · M Tarimiala, N Kakor · N Navaika 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · M Tarimiala, N Kakor | 10 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 58.82 |
|---|
| Roma Thapacaught and bowled · N Navaika 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b N Navaika | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Rubina Chhetricaught · Selina Solman · N Navaika0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Selina Solman · b N Navaika | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| R Chaudharylbw · V Vira 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b V Vira | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Riya Sharmanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| M Upadhayaybowled · V Vira 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b V Vira | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V Vira0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.3 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 3.14 | 2 | 0 |
| Selina Solman0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 3.67 | 1 | 0 |
| S Stephen0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| N Kakor0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| N Navaika0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 3 | 4.25 | 5 | 0 |
| R Andrew0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 5.00 | 2 | 0 |
1-3 (Bindu Rawal, 1.4) · 2-11 (Puja Mahato, 3.0) · 3-28 (R Poddar, 5.5) · 4-45 (I Barma, 8.1) · 5-53 (Samjhana Khadka, 9.2) · 6-65 (Roma Thapa, 12.2) · 7-68 (Rubina Chhetri, 12.5) · 8-70 (R Chaudhary, 13.4) · 9-71 (K Kunwar, 14.1) · 10-75 (M Upadhayay, 15.3)
Recorded target: 98 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 4/1 |
| 3 | 7 | 11/2 |
| 4 | 6 | 17/2 |
| 5 | 7 | 24/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 28/3 |
| 7 | 9 | 37/3 |
| 8 | 8 | 45/3 |
| 9 | 3 | 48/4 |
| 10 | 6 | 54/5 |
| 11 | 5 | 59/5 |
| 12 | 4 | 63/5 |
| 13 | 5 | 68/7 |
| 14 | 2 | 70/8 |
| 15 | 5 | 75/9 |
| 16 | 0 | 75/10 |
Rubina Chhetri: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Bindu Rawal: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
