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Women's Asia Cup · 2024 · Women
21 Jul 2024 · T20
Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 68%; India batted first.
India's chances ranged from 69% to 100% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 0% to 31%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esha Ozastumped · Richa Ghosh · Tanuja Kanwar 5 fours · 1 sixes | stumped · Richa Ghosh · b Tanuja Kanwar | 38 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 105.56 |
| Theertha Satishcaught · Harmanpreet Kaur · Renuka Singh 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harmanpreet Kaur · b Renuka Singh | 4 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Rinitha Rajithbowled · Pooja Vastrakar 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Pooja Vastrakar | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 233.33 |
| S Dharnidharkacaught · Tanuja Kanwar · Deepti Sharma 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tanuja Kanwar · b Deepti Sharma | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 62.50 |
| Kavisha Egodagenot out 3 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 40* | 32 | 3 | 1 | 125.00 |
| caught · Smriti Mandhana · b Radha Yadav |
| 10 |
| 13 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 76.92 |
| Heena Hotchandanicaught · Shafali Verma · Deepti Sharma 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shafali Verma · b Deepti Sharma | 8 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 88.89 |
|---|
| Rithika Rajithrun out · Richa Ghosh, Radha Yadav · Radha Yadav 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Richa Ghosh, Radha Yadav | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 85.71 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Renuka Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanuja Kanwar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Pooja Vastrakar1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 4 | 0 |
 Deepti Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Radha Yadav0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 7.25 | 1 | 0 |
1-11 (Theertha Satish, 4.2) · 2-24 (Rinitha Rajith, 5.2) · 3-36 (S Dharnidharka, 7.3) · 4-76 (Esha Oza, 12.3) · 5-95 (Khushi Sharma, 15.3) · 6-107 (Heena Hotchandani, 17.4) · 7-123 (Rithika Rajith, 20.0)
Recorded target: 202 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 2/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 11/0 |
| 5 | 12 | 23/1 |
| 6 | 8 | 31/2 |
| 7 | 4 | 35/2 |
| 8 | 8 | 43/3 |
| 9 | 10 | 53/3 |
| 10 | 14 | 67/3 |
| 11 | 6 | 73/3 |
| 12 | 2 | 75/3 |
| 13 | 2 | 77/4 |
| 14 | 9 | 86/4 |
| 15 | 8 | 94/4 |
| 16 | 5 | 99/5 |
| 17 | 7 | 106/5 |
| 18 | 4 | 110/6 |
| 19 | 5 | 115/6 |
| 20 | 8 | 123/7 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Renuka Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Pooja Vastrakar: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Radha Yadav: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shafali Verma: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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