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West Indies tour of Ireland · 2025 · Men
21 May 2025 · ODI
Clontarf Cricket Club Ground, Dublin · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 36%; Ireland batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Andrew Balbirniecaught · Gudakesh Motie · Alzarri Joseph9 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Gudakesh Motie · b Alzarri Joseph | 112 | 138 | 9 | 4 | 81.16 |
 Paul Stirlingcaught · Gudakesh Motie · Roston Chase6 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Gudakesh Motie · b Roston Chase | 54 | 64 | 6 | 2 | 84.38 |
| Cade Carmichaelcaught · Shai Hope · Matthew Forde 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shai Hope · b Matthew Forde | 16 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 76.19 |
 Harry Tectorcaught · Brandon King · Alzarri Joseph6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brandon King |
Ireland's chances ranged from 35% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 65%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 56 |
| 51 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 109.80 |
| Lorcan Tuckercaught · Brandon King · Matthew Forde 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brandon King · b Matthew Forde | 30 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 166.67 |
|---|
 George Dockrellcaught · Evin Lewis · Matthew Forde0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Evin Lewis · b Matthew Forde | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Thomas Mayesnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 5 | 1 | 0 | 160.00 |
|---|
 Andrew McBrinenot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 9 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Forde1 maidens · 2 wides · 2 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 68 | 3 | 6.80 | 2 | 2 |
| Alzarri Joseph0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 51 | 2 | 5.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Shamar Joseph0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 51 | 0 | 7.29 | 1 | 1 |
| Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 53 | 0 | 5.30 | 5 | 0 |
| Justin Greaves0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Roston Chase0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 42 | 1 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-109 (Paul Stirling, 22.1) · 2-151 (Cade Carmichael, 29.5) · 3-249 (Andrew Balbirnie, 43.2) · 4-286 (Harry Tector, 47.3) · 5-292 (Lorcan Tucker, 48.3) · 6-293 (George Dockrell, 48.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 6/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 10/0 |
| 5 | 10 | 20/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 21/0 |
| 7 | 9 | 30/0 |
| 8 | 10 | 40/0 |
| 9 | 6 | 46/0 |
| 10 | 8 | 54/0 |
| 11 | 9 | 63/0 |
| 12 | 3 | 66/0 |
| 13 | 3 | 69/0 |
| 14 | 7 | 76/0 |
| 15 | 1 | 77/0 |
| 16 | 1 | 78/0 |
| 17 | 4 | 82/0 |
| 18 | 7 | 89/0 |
| 19 | 3 | 92/0 |
| 20 | 5 | 97/0 |
| 21 | 11 | 108/0 |
| 22 | 1 | 109/0 |
| 23 | 7 | 116/1 |
| 24 | 4 | 120/1 |
| 25 | 3 | 123/1 |
| 26 | 6 | 129/1 |
| 27 | 3 | 132/1 |
| 28 | 3 | 135/1 |
| 29 | 4 | 139/1 |
| 30 | 12 | 151/2 |
| 31 | 5 | 156/2 |
| 32 | 4 | 160/2 |
| 33 | 9 | 169/2 |
| 34 | 7 | 176/2 |
| 35 | 11 | 187/2 |
| 36 | 8 | 195/2 |
| 37 | 3 | 198/2 |
| 38 | 8 | 206/2 |
| 39 | 5 | 211/2 |
| 40 | 9 | 220/2 |
| 41 | 4 | 224/2 |
| 42 | 11 | 235/2 |
| 43 | 10 | 245/2 |
| 44 | 11 | 256/3 |
| 45 | 9 | 265/3 |
| 46 | 8 | 273/3 |
| 47 | 10 | 283/3 |
| 48 | 5 | 288/4 |
| 49 | 6 | 294/6 |
| 50 | 9 | 303/6 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paul Stirling: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Andrew Balbirnie: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
George Dockrell: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Andrew McBrine: AssociateAffiliate · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
