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West Indies tour of Ireland · 2025 · Men
21 May 2025 · ODI
Clontarf Cricket Club Ground, Dublin · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 36%; Ireland batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Kingcaught · Lorcan Tucker · Barry McCarthy 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lorcan Tucker · b Barry McCarthy | 19 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 65.52 |
| Evin Lewisrun out · Harry Tector · Barry McCarthy 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Harry Tector | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
| Keacy Cartycaught · Joshua Little · Barry McCarthy 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joshua Little · b Barry McCarthy | 6 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 40.00 |
 Shai Hopebowled · Thomas Mayes0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Thomas Mayes | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| Amir Jangoolbw · Barry McCarthy 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Barry McCarthy |
Ireland's chances ranged from 35% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 65%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Justin Greavescaught · Paul Stirling · Joshua Little 7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Paul Stirling · b Joshua Little | 35 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 205.88 |
|---|
 Roston Chasebowled · George Dockrell4 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b George Dockrell | 55 | 76 | 4 | 2 | 72.37 |
|---|
| Matthew Fordecaught · Joshua Little · Barry McCarthy 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Joshua Little · b Barry McCarthy | 38 | 48 | 4 | 1 | 79.17 |
|---|
| Alzarri Josephbowled · George Dockrell 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b George Dockrell | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Gudakesh Motiecaught · Thomas Mayes · George Dockrell 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Thomas Mayes · b George Dockrell | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Shamar Josephnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 7 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barry McCarthy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.1 | 0 | 32 | 4 | 4.47 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Mayes2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 2 | 23 | 1 | 3.83 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua Little0 maidens · 2 wides · 3 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 6.14 | 2 | 3 |
| L McCarthy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Andrew McBrine0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
 George Dockrell0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 21 | 3 | 10.50 | 5 | 0 |
1-3 (Evin Lewis, 3.0) · 2-20 (Keacy Carty, 7.0) · 3-29 (Brandon King, 8.4) · 4-29 (Amir Jangoo, 9.0) · 5-31 (Shai Hope, 9.4) · 6-71 (Justin Greaves, 14.1) · 7-169 (Roston Chase, 32.0) · 8-171 (Alzarri Joseph, 33.1) · 9-179 (Gudakesh Motie, 33.5) · 10-179 (Matthew Forde, 34.1)
Recorded target: 304 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 1/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 3/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 3/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 8/1 |
| 6 | 8 | 16/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 20/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 25/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 29/4 |
| 10 | 6 | 35/5 |
| 11 | 16 | 51/5 |
| 12 | 6 | 57/5 |
| 13 | 12 | 69/5 |
| 14 | 1 | 70/5 |
| 15 | 4 | 74/6 |
| 16 | 1 | 75/6 |
| 17 | 9 | 84/6 |
| 18 | 2 | 86/6 |
| 19 | 2 | 88/6 |
| 20 | 5 | 93/6 |
| 21 | 13 | 106/6 |
| 22 | 3 | 109/6 |
| 23 | 4 | 113/6 |
| 24 | 2 | 115/6 |
| 25 | 5 | 120/6 |
| 26 | 8 | 128/6 |
| 27 | 8 | 136/6 |
| 28 | 4 | 140/6 |
| 29 | 5 | 145/6 |
| 30 | 8 | 153/6 |
| 31 | 3 | 156/6 |
| 32 | 13 | 169/7 |
| 33 | 2 | 171/7 |
| 34 | 8 | 179/9 |
| 35 | 0 | 179/10 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paul Stirling: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Andrew Balbirnie: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
George Dockrell: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Andrew McBrine: AssociateAffiliate · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
