EnglandversusBangladesh

5 Oct 2024 · T20

Sharjah Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 21 runs

England20.0 overs118/7 Bangladesh20.0 overs97/7 Sharjah Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

89%England11%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,767 vs 1,470 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 2 and Bangladesh won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 89%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

England's chances ranged from 73% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 28%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.2: CE Dean to Dilara Akter, Dilara Akter out. England up from 73% to 81%.
2nd inns 4.1: LCN Smith to S Rani, S Rani out. England up from 80% to 87%.
2nd inns 16.2: LCN Smith to Taj Nehar, Taj Nehar out. England up from 83% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England118/7 Bangladesh97/7

Innings 2

Bangladesh

97/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Shathi Ranicaught · Sophie Ecclestone · Linsey Smith 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sophie Ecclestone · b Linsey Smith	7	9	1	0	77.78
Dilara Akterlbw · Charlie Dean 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Charlie Dean	6	12	0	0	50.00
Sobhana Mostarylbw · Charlie Dean 1 fours · 1 sixes	lbw · b Charlie Dean	44	48	1	1	91.67
Nigar Sultanarun out · Amy Jones, Linsey Smith · Sophie Ecclestone 2 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Amy Jones, Linsey Smith	15	20	2	0	75.00
Shorna Akterbowled · Sarah Glenn 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Sarah Glenn

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Nat Sciver-Brunt0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	20	1	5.00	1	0
Linsey Smith1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	11	2	2.75	2	0
Charlie Dean0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	22	2	5.50	1	1
Sophie Ecclestone0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	21	0	5.25	1	0
Sarah Glenn0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	22	1	5.50	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	4	7/0
3	9	16/0
4	1	17/1
5	0	17/2
6	3	20/2
7	4	24/2
8	3	27/2
9	10	37/2
10	5	42/2
11	3	45/2
12	9	54/3
13	1	55/4
14	5	60/4
15	7	67/4
16	12	79/4
17	4	83/5
18	4	87/6
19	4	91/7
20	6	97/7

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.