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ACC Men's Premier Cup · 2026 · Men
12 Sept 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 58%; Nepal batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arjun Kumalrun out · Harpreet Singh · Akshdeep Nath 6 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Harpreet Singh | 43 | 63 | 6 | 0 | 68.25 |
| Aasif Sheikhcaught · Aayan Afzal Khan · Haider Ali 8 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Aayan Afzal Khan · b Haider Ali | 102 | 106 | 8 | 4 | 96.23 |
| Ishan Pandeycaught · T Suri · Adeeb Usmani 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · T Suri · b Adeeb Usmani | 13 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 65.00 |
 Rohit Kumarcaught · T Suri · Khuzaima Tanveer2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · T Suri · b Khuzaima Tanveer | 40 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 90.91 |
 |
Nepal's chances ranged from 57% to 100% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 0% to 43%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · T Suri · b Ibrar Ahmad |
| 52 |
| 38 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 136.84 |
 Dipendra Singh Aireecaught · Aayan Afzal Khan · Ibrar Ahmad1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aayan Afzal Khan · b Ibrar Ahmad | 18 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Sundeep Joracaught · Akshdeep Nath · Khuzaima Tanveer 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Akshdeep Nath · b Khuzaima Tanveer | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 140.00 |
|---|
 Karan KCcaught · Akshdeep Nath · Ibrar Ahmad0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Akshdeep Nath · b Ibrar Ahmad | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Basir Ahamadnot out 2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 15* | 4 | 2 | 1 | 375.00 |
|---|
 Sandeep Lamichhanecaught · Akshdeep Nath · Ibrar Ahmad0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Akshdeep Nath · b Ibrar Ahmad | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Lalit Rajbanshinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 9 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khuzaima Tanveer0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 62 | 2 | 6.89 | 2 | 0 |
| Muhammad Mohsin0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 6.83 | 0 | 1 |
| Aayan Afzal Khan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 4.13 | 2 | 0 |
| Haider Ali0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 4.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Ibrar Ahmad0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 62 | 4 | 7.75 | 1 | 1 |
| Akshdeep Nath0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Adeeb Usmani0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-97 (Arjun Kumal, 21.0) · 2-123 (Ishan Pandey, 26.4) · 3-191 (Aasif Sheikh, 35.3) · 4-258 (Rohit Kumar, 44.3) · 5-273 (Gulsan Jha, 45.5) · 6-286 (Sundeep Jora, 47.0) · 7-293 (Karan KC, 48.0) · 8-302 (Dipendra Singh Airee, 49.2) · 9-302 (Sandeep Lamichhane, 49.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 14/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 19/0 |
| 6 | 8 | 27/0 |
| 7 | 13 | 40/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 42/0 |
| 9 | 1 | 43/0 |
| 10 | 2 | 45/0 |
| 11 | 9 | 54/0 |
| 12 | 4 | 58/0 |
| 13 | 9 | 67/0 |
| 14 | 4 | 71/0 |
| 15 | 8 | 79/0 |
| 16 | 4 | 83/0 |
| 17 | 4 | 87/0 |
| 18 | 2 | 89/0 |
| 19 | 3 | 92/0 |
| 20 | 3 | 95/0 |
| 21 | 2 | 97/1 |
| 22 | 4 | 101/1 |
| 23 | 4 | 105/1 |
| 24 | 4 | 109/1 |
| 25 | 2 | 111/1 |
| 26 | 4 | 115/1 |
| 27 | 10 | 125/2 |
| 28 | 11 | 136/2 |
| 29 | 3 | 139/2 |
| 30 | 11 | 150/2 |
| 31 | 9 | 159/2 |
| 32 | 8 | 167/2 |
| 33 | 8 | 175/2 |
| 34 | 10 | 185/2 |
| 35 | 4 | 189/2 |
| 36 | 2 | 191/3 |
| 37 | 9 | 200/3 |
| 38 | 10 | 210/3 |
| 39 | 9 | 219/3 |
| 40 | 8 | 227/3 |
| 41 | 4 | 231/3 |
| 42 | 8 | 239/3 |
| 43 | 14 | 253/3 |
| 44 | 4 | 257/3 |
| 45 | 8 | 265/4 |
| 46 | 10 | 275/5 |
| 47 | 11 | 286/6 |
| 48 | 7 | 293/7 |
| 49 | 7 | 300/7 |
| 50 | 13 | 313/9 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harpreet Singh: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
