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ACC Men's Premier Cup · 2026 · Men
12 Sept 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 58%; Nepal batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T Suricaught · Sundeep Jora · Karan KC 4 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Sundeep Jora · b Karan KC | 42 | 28 | 4 | 3 | 150.00 |
| Adeeb Usmanibowled · Lalit Rajbanshi 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lalit Rajbanshi | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
| Akshdeep Nathcaught · Gulsan Jha · Sandeep Lamichhane 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gulsan Jha · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Harpreet Singhcaught · Dipendra Singh Airee · Rohit Kumar4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dipendra Singh Airee · b Rohit Kumar | 33 | 41 | 4 | 0 | 80.49 |
| Rahul Chopranot out 3 fours · 4 sixes | not out |
Nepal's chances ranged from 57% to 100% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 0% to 43%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 100* |
| 105 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 95.24 |
| Aayan Afzal Khancaught · Sundeep Jora · Gulsan Jha 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sundeep Jora · b Gulsan Jha | 9 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 47.37 |
|---|
| Sohaib Khancaught · Basir Ahamad · Lalit Rajbanshi 4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Basir Ahamad · b Lalit Rajbanshi | 52 | 57 | 4 | 2 | 91.23 |
|---|
| Khuzaima Tanveerbowled · Dipendra Singh Airee 0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Dipendra Singh Airee | 15 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 83.33 |
|---|
| Ibrar Ahmadcaught · Ishan Pandey · Karan KC 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ishan Pandey · b Karan KC | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Muhammad Mohsincaught · Dipendra Singh Airee · Karan KC 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dipendra Singh Airee · b Karan KC | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Haider Alistumped · Aasif Sheikh · Basir Ahamad 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Aasif Sheikh · b Basir Ahamad | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lalit Rajbanshi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 43 | 2 | 4.30 | 0 | 0 |
 Karan KC0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 49 | 3 | 5.44 | 2 | 0 |
 Sandeep Lamichhane0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 53 | 1 | 5.30 | 0 | 0 |
 Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 52 | 1 | 5.20 | 2 | 0 |
 Rohit Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Gulsan Jha0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 42 | 1 | 7.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Basir Ahamad0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.1 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 9.69 | 3 | 0 |
1-45 (Adeeb Usmani, 5.0) · 2-46 (Akshdeep Nath, 5.5) · 3-56 (T Suri, 8.3) · 4-103 (Harpreet Singh, 17.3) · 5-119 (Aayan Afzal Khan, 22.2) · 6-206 (Sohaib Khan, 38.4) · 7-259 (Khuzaima Tanveer, 45.5) · 8-260 (Ibrar Ahmad, 46.1) · 9-260 (Muhammad Mohsin, 46.3) · 10-269 (Haider Ali, 49.1)
Recorded target: 314 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 17 | 23/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 30/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 38/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 45/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 47/2 |
| 7 | 6 | 53/2 |
| 8 | 2 | 55/2 |
| 9 | 1 | 56/3 |
| 10 | 11 | 67/3 |
| 11 | 6 | 73/3 |
| 12 | 2 | 75/3 |
| 13 | 1 | 76/3 |
| 14 | 3 | 79/3 |
| 15 | 6 | 85/3 |
| 16 | 3 | 88/3 |
| 17 | 13 | 101/3 |
| 18 | 2 | 103/4 |
| 19 | 3 | 106/4 |
| 20 | 3 | 109/4 |
| 21 | 6 | 115/4 |
| 22 | 2 | 117/4 |
| 23 | 4 | 121/5 |
| 24 | 1 | 122/5 |
| 25 | 4 | 126/5 |
| 26 | 4 | 130/5 |
| 27 | 12 | 142/5 |
| 28 | 8 | 150/5 |
| 29 | 3 | 153/5 |
| 30 | 2 | 155/5 |
| 31 | 7 | 162/5 |
| 32 | 7 | 169/5 |
| 33 | 5 | 174/5 |
| 34 | 2 | 176/5 |
| 35 | 9 | 185/5 |
| 36 | 4 | 189/5 |
| 37 | 7 | 196/5 |
| 38 | 4 | 200/5 |
| 39 | 6 | 206/6 |
| 40 | 4 | 210/6 |
| 41 | 8 | 218/6 |
| 42 | 5 | 223/6 |
| 43 | 9 | 232/6 |
| 44 | 11 | 243/6 |
| 45 | 14 | 257/6 |
| 46 | 3 | 260/7 |
| 47 | 1 | 261/9 |
| 48 | 4 | 265/9 |
| 49 | 2 | 267/9 |
| 50 | 2 | 269/10 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harpreet Singh: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
