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Photo: Ullaelinakarna
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Portugal tour of Finland · 2026 · Men
4 Jul 2026 · T20
Kerava National Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Portugal more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Portugal started on 63%; Portugal batted first.
Portugal's chances ranged from 63% to 98% during the match (Finland: 2% to 38%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D Norotamcaught · Zahidullah Kamal · NM Salonen 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Zahidullah Kamal · b NM Salonen | 47 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 162.07 |
| C Potgietercaught · NM Salonen · Hammadullah Shinwari 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · NM Salonen · b Hammadullah Shinwari | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 114.29 |
| SP Gomesrun out · NM Salonen · NM Salonen 3 fours · 2 sixes | run out · NM Salonen | 62 | 46 | 3 | 2 | 134.78 |
| JP Nettolbw · PUKK Arachchige 4 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b PUKK Arachchige | 41 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 141.38 |
| J Martinsnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 11* | 8 | 1 | 0 | 137.50 |
| Edward Fleming |
| not out |
| 0* |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 9 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amjad Sher0 maidens · 8 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 49 | 0 | 12.25 | 8 | 1 |
| Hammadullah Shinwari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Akhil Arjunan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Faraaz Mehti Abbas0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 9.50 | 0 | 0 |
| PUKK Arachchige0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 8.75 | 0 | 0 |
| NM Salonen0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 1 | 0 |
1-16 (C Potgieter, 1.5) · 2-89 (D Norotam, 10.0) · 3-156 (SP Gomes, 16.5) · 4-181 (JP Netto, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 16/1 |
| 3 | 7 | 23/1 |
| 4 | 9 | 32/1 |
| 5 | 15 | 47/1 |
| 6 | 12 | 59/1 |
| 7 | 8 | 67/1 |
| 8 | 7 | 74/1 |
| 9 | 9 | 83/1 |
| 10 | 6 | 89/2 |
| 11 | 9 | 98/2 |
| 12 | 7 | 105/2 |
| 13 | 5 | 110/2 |
| 14 | 13 | 123/2 |
| 15 | 12 | 135/2 |
| 16 | 17 | 152/2 |
| 17 | 6 | 158/3 |
| 18 | 7 | 165/3 |
| 19 | 9 | 174/3 |
| 20 | 7 | 181/4 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.