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Photo: Ullaelinakarna
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Portugal tour of Finland · 2026 · Men
4 Jul 2026 · T20
Kerava National Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Portugal more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Portugal started on 63%; Portugal batted first.
Portugal's chances ranged from 63% to 98% during the match (Finland: 2% to 38%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK Mohancaught · U Shantu · Edward Fleming 4 fours · 4 sixes | caught · U Shantu · b Edward Fleming | 71 | 44 | 4 | 4 | 161.36 |
| VS Padhaalbowled · J Martins 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b J Martins | 12 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
| Faraaz Mehti Abbasbowled · Edward Fleming 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Edward Fleming | 17 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| A Pusthaynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 17* | 13 | 0 | 0 | 130.77 |
| NM Salonencaught · Sebastian de Oliveira · U Shantu 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sebastian de Oliveira · b U Shantu | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
| Faheem Nellancheri |
| run out · Sebastian de Oliveira |
| 29 |
| 14 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 207.14 |
| Zahidullah Kamalrun out · C Nunes · Sebastian de Oliveira 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · C Nunes | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Amjad Shernot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 12* | 5 | 0 | 1 | 240.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian de Oliveira0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 8.50 | 2 | 0 |
| U Shantu0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 7.75 | 3 | 1 |
| Sirajullah Khadim0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| J Martins0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 7.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Edward Fleming0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 2 | 7.75 | 0 | 0 |
| H Khuttan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 22.00 | 2 | 0 |
1-24 (VS Padhaal, 5.0) · 2-96 (Faraaz Mehti Abbas, 12.0) · 3-111 (AK Mohan, 13.3) · 4-114 (NM Salonen, 14.5) · 5-153 (Faheem Nellancheri, 18.1) · 6-161 (Zahidullah Kamal, 19.1)
Recorded target: 182 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 17/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 22/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 24/1 |
| 6 | 9 | 33/1 |
| 7 | 8 | 41/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 47/1 |
| 9 | 12 | 59/1 |
| 10 | 8 | 67/1 |
| 11 | 23 | 90/1 |
| 12 | 6 | 96/2 |
| 13 | 12 | 108/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 112/3 |
| 15 | 3 | 115/4 |
| 16 | 13 | 128/4 |
| 17 | 8 | 136/4 |
| 18 | 15 | 151/4 |
| 19 | 10 | 161/5 |
| 20 | 12 | 173/6 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.