**Trent Bridge**
Photo: Mattbuck
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

NottinghamshireversusLancashire

9 Jun 2024 · T20

Trent Bridge · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Lancashire won by 6 wickets

Nottinghamshire20.0 overs153/8 Lancashire18.3 overs155/4 Trent Bridge ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nottinghamshire started on 44%; Nottinghamshire batted first.

Nottinghamshire’s chance of winning (%) · Lancashire is the rest

Nottinghamshire's chances ranged from 0% to 45% during the match (Lancashire: 55% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.4: L Wood to AD Hales, JM Clarke out. Lancashire up from 57% to 68%.
1.4: S Mahmood to WA Young, WA Young out. Lancashire up from 67% to 77%.
2nd inns 4.3: M Montgomery to JJ Bohannon, JJ Bohannon out. Nottinghamshire up from 22% to 33%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.