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Quadrangular Twenty20 Series (Malawi) · 2025 · Men
10 Jul 2025 · T20
Germany more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Malawi started on 26%; Malawi batted first.
Malawi's chances ranged from 19% to 100% during the match (Germany: 0% to 81%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shahid Afridi (2)caught · SZ Vayani · B Balala 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · SZ Vayani · b B Balala | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
| Musadiq Ahmedcaught · B Balala · A Limdawala 7 fours · 2 sixes | caught · B Balala · b A Limdawala | 49 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 158.06 |
| Mohammad Hassan Khancaught · SY Nihute · Daniel Jackiel 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · SY Nihute · b Daniel Jackiel | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Harmanjot Singhcaught · D Kansonkho · SZ Vayani 1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · D Kansonkho · b SZ Vayani | 25 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 156.25 |
| Fayaz Khancaught and bowled · A Limdawala 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b A Limdawala | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Muslim Yarcaught and bowled · A Limdawala 0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught and bowled · b A Limdawala |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Sachin Mandynot out 3 fours · 4 sixes | not out | 50* | 35 | 3 | 4 | 142.86 |
|---|
| Sajid Liaqatcaught and bowled · SZ Vayani 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b SZ Vayani | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| V Jatinder Kumarlbw · Sami Sohail 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sami Sohail | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Ghulam Ahmadibowled · Sami Sohail 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sami Sohail | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Adil Khancaught · SZ Vayani · A Limdawala 0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · SZ Vayani · b A Limdawala | 17 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jackiel0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 8.25 | 1 | 0 |
| B Balala0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 7.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Sami Sohail0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| SZ Vayani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 42 | 2 | 10.50 | 0 | 0 |
| A Limdawala0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.5 | 0 | 23 | 4 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
| K Mtunduwatha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-18 (Shahid Afridi (2), 1.2) · 2-21 (Mohammad Hassan Khan, 2.1) · 3-78 (Musadiq Ahmed, 8.4) · 4-78 (Fayaz Khan, 8.5) · 5-78 (Muslim Yar, 9.0) · 6-86 (Harmanjot Singh, 10.0) · 7-96 (Sajid Liaqat, 11.4) · 8-103 (V Jatinder Kumar, 13.0) · 9-117 (Ghulam Ahmadi, 14.1) · 10-158 (Adil Khan, 19.5)
Recorded target: 167 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 13/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 21/1 |
| 3 | 7 | 28/2 |
| 4 | 5 | 33/2 |
| 5 | 9 | 42/2 |
| 6 | 19 | 61/2 |
| 7 | 6 | 67/2 |
| 8 | 10 | 77/2 |
| 9 | 1 | 78/5 |
| 10 | 8 | 86/6 |
| 11 | 9 | 95/6 |
| 12 | 1 | 96/7 |
| 13 | 7 | 103/8 |
| 14 | 14 | 117/8 |
| 15 | 2 | 119/9 |
| 16 | 3 | 122/9 |
| 17 | 10 | 132/9 |
| 18 | 8 | 140/9 |
| 19 | 11 | 151/9 |
| 20 | 7 | 158/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.