NorthamptonshireversusDerbyshire

11 Jul 2025 · T20

County Ground, Northampton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northamptonshire won by 13 runs

Northamptonshire20.0 overs237/4 Derbyshire20.0 overs224/6 County Ground, Northampton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northamptonshire started on 60%; Northamptonshire batted first.

Northamptonshire’s chance of winning (%) · Derbyshire is the rest

Northamptonshire's chances ranged from 46% to 99% during the match (Derbyshire: 1% to 54%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 7.4: L Pope to CP Jewell, CP Jewell out. Northamptonshire up from 46% to 61%.
2nd inns 10.6: GLS Scrimshaw to MK Andersson, MK Andersson out. Northamptonshire up from 69% to 82%.
2nd inns 15.3: LA Procter to WL Madsen, WL Madsen out. Northamptonshire up from 75% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northamptonshire237/4 Derbyshire224/6

Innings 1