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Photo: user:jguk
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
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Vitality Blast Men · 2026 · Men
22 May 2026 · T20
The Oval · Venue photographSurrey started on 55%; Surrey batted first.
Surrey's chances ranged from 54% to 100% during the match (Lancashire: 0% to 46%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Jenningscaught · Jason Roy · Reece Topley 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jason Roy · b Reece Topley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Michael Jonescaught and bowled · Yousef Majid2 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Yousef Majid | 16 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 123.08 |
| Matthew Hurstlbw · Reece Topley 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Reece Topley | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ben McDermottcaught · Sam Curran · Tom Curran 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Sam Curran · b Tom Curran | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 120.00 |
| J Moorescaught · Ollie Pope · Sean Abbott 0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Ollie Pope · b Sean Abbott |
| 15 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 250.00 |
 Chris Greencaught · Tom Curran · Jordan Clark2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Tom Curran · b Jordan Clark | 35 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 140.00 |
|---|
 Paul Coughlincaught · Sam Curran · Yousef Majid2 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Sam Curran · b Yousef Majid | 37 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 154.17 |
|---|
| Jack Blatherwicknot out 0 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 19* | 11 | 0 | 2 | 172.73 |
|---|
 Tom Hartleystumped · Laurie Evans · Yousef Majid0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Laurie Evans · b Yousef Majid | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 120.00 |
|---|
 Saqib Mahmoodcaught · Sam Curran · Jordan Clark0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sam Curran · b Jordan Clark | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 3 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Reece Topley0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 6.75 | 0 | 2 |
 Tom Curran0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Sean Abbott0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 12.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Yousef Majid0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 42 | 3 | 10.50 | 2 | 1 |
 Jordan Clark0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.1 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 10.62 | 1 | 0 |
1-0 (Keaton Jennings, 0.1) · 2-0 (Matthew Hurst, 0.4) · 3-28 (Ben McDermott, 3.4) · 4-45 (J Moores, 5.0) · 5-49 (Michael Jones, 5.2) · 6-111 (Paul Coughlin, 11.4) · 7-136 (Chris Green, 14.2) · 8-153 (Tom Hartley, 15.5) · 9-154 (Saqib Mahmood, 16.1)
Absent hurt: JM Anderson
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/2 |
| 2 | 8 | 13/2 |
| 3 | 10 | 23/2 |
| 4 | 7 | 30/3 |
| 5 | 15 | 45/4 |
| 6 | 9 | 54/5 |
| 7 | 7 | 61/5 |
| 8 | 16 | 77/5 |
| 9 | 13 | 90/5 |
| 10 | 8 | 98/5 |
| 11 | 7 | 105/5 |
| 12 | 9 | 114/6 |
| 13 | 16 | 130/6 |
| 14 | 5 | 135/6 |
| 15 | 8 | 143/7 |
| 16 | 11 | 154/8 |
| 17 | 0 | 154/9 |
Daniel Lawrence: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Hartley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Chris Green: Servite et contribuere · CC0
James Anderson: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Michael Jones: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Reece Topley: Kyle Andrews · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jason Roy: Joeyjackets · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Paul Coughlin: Dave Morton · Public domain
Sean Abbott: Naparazzi · CC BY-SA 2.0
Saqib Mahmood: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Curran: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jordan Clark: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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