NetherlandsversusItaly

28 May 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Netherlands won by 94 runs

Netherlands20.0 overs178/4 Italy20.0 overs84/9 Sportpark Harga, Schiedam ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Netherlands more likely to win

83%Netherlands17%Italy

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Netherlands rate stronger than Italy (1,501 vs 1,329 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Netherlands won 2 and Italy won 0
Netherlands are playing at home in the Netherlands

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Netherlands started on 83%; Netherlands batted first.

Netherlands’s chance of winning (%) · Italy is the rest

Netherlands's chances ranged from 83% to 100% during the match (Italy: 0% to 17%).

Biggest swings

0.3: EL Bartram to IJR Zwilling, four by IJR Zwilling. Netherlands up from 83% to 85%.
1.6: C Mahamalage to IJR Zwilling, six by IJR Zwilling. Netherlands up from 88% to 89%.
8.1: Ilenia Sims to M Landsman, M Landsman out. Italy up from 5% to 7%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Netherlands178/4 Italy84/9

Innings 2

Italy

84/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Italy batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
M Rathnayakecaught · Babette de Leede · Caroline de Lange 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Babette de Leede · b Caroline de Lange	8	18	1	0	44.44
D Nanayakkaracaught · Robine Rijke · Hannah Landheer 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Robine Rijke · b Hannah Landheer	12	7	3	0	171.43
Ilenia Simscaught · M Landsman · Frederique Overdijk 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · M Landsman · b Frederique Overdijk	1	4	0	0	25.00
EL Bartramcaught · S Khurana · Hannah Landheer 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · S Khurana · b Hannah Landheer	39	40	2	1	97.50
K Peddrickstumped · Babette de Leede · Caroline de Lange 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Babette de Leede · b Caroline de Lange	1	7	0

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Iris Zwilling0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	16	0	5.33	0
Hannah Landheer0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	13	2	4.33	0
Frederique Overdijk0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	4	1	2.00	2
Caroline de Lange2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	2	8	2	2.00	1
Silver Siegers0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	10	0	10.00	5
M Landsman0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	12	2	3.00	1
MIW van den Raad0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	6	0	6.00	5
P Molkenboer0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	14	0	7.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	5	14/1
3	2	16/1
4	1	17/2
5	5	22/2
6	6	28/2
7	0	28/3
8	10	38/3
9	0	38/5
10	2	40/6
11	3	43/6
12	7	50/6
13	6	56/6
14	1	57/6
15	4	61/6
16	2	63/7
17	10	73/7
18	5	78/7
19	3	81/8
20	3	84/9

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