Adelaide StrikersversusSydney Sixers

15 Jan 2025 · T20

Adelaide Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sydney Sixers won by 3 wickets

Adelaide Strikers20.0 overs182/5 Sydney Sixers19.5 overs183/7 Adelaide Oval ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Adelaide Strikers started on 42%; Adelaide Strikers batted first.

Adelaide Strikers’s chance of winning (%) · Sydney Sixers is the rest

Adelaide Strikers's chances ranged from 9% to 85% during the match (Sydney Sixers: 15% to 91%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.1: L Pope to L Shaw, L Shaw out. Adelaide Strikers up from 50% to 74%.
2nd inns 18.6: L Pope to H Kerr, six by H Kerr. Sydney Sixers up from 20% to 49%.
2nd inns 19.2: HTRY Thornton to H Kerr, four by H Kerr. Sydney Sixers up from 46% to 74%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Adelaide Strikers182/5 Sydney Sixers183/7

Innings 1