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Photo: Younisjunejo
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Australia tour of Pakistan · 2026 · Men
2 Jun 2026 · ODI
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 41%; Australia batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sahibzada Farhancaught · Adam Zampa · Matthew Kuhnemann 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Adam Zampa · b Matthew Kuhnemann | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
| Maaz Sadaqatbowled · Nathan Ellis 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nathan Ellis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Mohammad Babar Azamlbw · Nathan Ellis2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nathan Ellis | 16 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Ghazi Ghoribowled · Adam Zampa 5 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Adam Zampa | 37 | 48 | 5 | 0 | 77.08 |
| Salman Ali Aghabowled · Matthew Short 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Matthew Short | 7 |
Australia's chances ranged from 20% to 98% during the match (Pakistan: 2% to 80%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 10 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 70.00 |
| Abdul Samadcaught and bowled · Matthew Short 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Matthew Short | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
 Shadab Khanstumped · Josh Inglis · Tanveer Sangha1 fours · 3 sixes | stumped · Josh Inglis · b Tanveer Sangha | 71 | 104 | 1 | 3 | 68.27 |
|---|
| Arafat Minhaslbw · Nathan Ellis 4 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nathan Ellis | 33 | 43 | 4 | 0 | 76.74 |
|---|
 Shaheen Afridicaught · Josh Inglis · Matthew Short2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Josh Inglis · b Matthew Short | 11 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 61.11 |
|---|
 Haris Raufbowled · Nathan Ellis0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nathan Ellis | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Abrar Ahmednot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Ellis1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 33 | 4 | 3.67 | 3 | 0 |
| Matthew Kuhnemann1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 41 | 1 | 4.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Short1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 36 | 3 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Adam Zampa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 3.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanveer Sangha1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 22 | 1 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Matt Renshaw0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Cameron Green0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 9.50 | 5 | 0 |
1-4 (Maaz Sadaqat, 0.3) · 2-6 (Sahibzada Farhan, 1.2) · 3-33 (Mohammad Babar Azam, 4.4) · 4-44 (Salman Ali Agha, 7.5) · 5-58 (Abdul Samad, 11.1) · 6-78 (Ghazi Ghori, 16.3) · 7-137 (Arafat Minhas, 32.0) · 8-168 (Shaheen Afridi, 37.0) · 9-189 (Haris Rauf, 44.0) · 10-190 (Shadab Khan, 44.0)
Recorded target: 232 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/1 |
| 2 | 6 | 12/2 |
| 3 | 1 | 13/2 |
| 4 | 11 | 24/2 |
| 5 | 9 | 33/3 |
| 6 | 2 | 35/3 |
| 7 | 6 | 41/3 |
| 8 | 3 | 44/4 |
| 9 | 0 | 44/4 |
| 10 | 9 | 53/4 |
| 11 | 5 | 58/4 |
| 12 | 1 | 59/5 |
| 13 | 2 | 61/5 |
| 14 | 4 | 65/5 |
| 15 | 2 | 67/5 |
| 16 | 8 | 75/5 |
| 17 | 4 | 79/6 |
| 18 | 0 | 79/6 |
| 19 | 1 | 80/6 |
| 20 | 8 | 88/6 |
| 21 | 4 | 92/6 |
| 22 | 3 | 95/6 |
| 23 | 4 | 99/6 |
| 24 | 10 | 109/6 |
| 25 | 3 | 112/6 |
| 26 | 2 | 114/6 |
| 27 | 5 | 119/6 |
| 28 | 3 | 122/6 |
| 29 | 1 | 123/6 |
| 30 | 4 | 127/6 |
| 31 | 5 | 132/6 |
| 32 | 5 | 137/7 |
| 33 | 6 | 143/7 |
| 34 | 0 | 143/7 |
| 35 | 13 | 156/7 |
| 36 | 4 | 160/7 |
| 37 | 8 | 168/8 |
| 38 | 1 | 169/8 |
| 39 | 3 | 172/8 |
| 40 | 7 | 179/8 |
| 41 | 2 | 181/8 |
| 42 | 0 | 181/8 |
| 43 | 7 | 188/8 |
| 44 | 1 | 189/9 |
| 45 | 1 | 190/10 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Oliver Peake: DustyNail · CC BY-SA 4.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Renshaw: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shadab Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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