Super Smash · 2025/26 · Men

CanterburyversusAuckland

14 Jan 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Auckland won by 9 wickets

Canterbury20.0 overs132/10 Auckland10.1 overs136/1 Eden Park Outer Oval, Auckland ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Canterbury started on 47%; Canterbury batted first.

Canterbury’s chance of winning (%) · Auckland is the rest

Canterbury's chances ranged from 0% to 57% during the match (Auckland: 43% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.6: S Dixit to HJ Chamberlain, HJ Chamberlain out. Auckland up from 44% to 57%.
1.3: AL Olliver to MWT Boyle, MWT Boyle out. Auckland up from 57% to 70%.
3.5: AL Olliver to CE McConchie, CE McConchie out. Auckland up from 71% to 80%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Canterbury chose to bat
Player of the match: Rohit Gulati
match referees: K Pulley
reserve umpires: V Mahna
tv umpires: JM Dempsey
umpires: SB Martin, WR Knights

Match history & source

On 14 Jan 2026, Canterbury played Auckland at Eden Park Outer Oval, Auckland. Recorded result: Auckland won by 9 wickets.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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