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ICC Women's World Cup · 2025/26 · Women
13 Oct 2025 · ODI
Dr. Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy ACA-VDCA Cricket Stadium, Visakhapatnam · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 27%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Laura Wolvaardtrun out · Fargana Hoque, Nigar Sultana · Fahima Khatun5 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Fargana Hoque, Nigar Sultana | 31 | 56 | 5 | 0 | 55.36 |
| Tazmin Britscaught and bowled · Nahida Akter 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Nahida Akter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Anne Boschcaught · Sobhana Mostary · Ritu Moni 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sobhana Mostary · b Ritu Moni | 28 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 80.00 |
| Annerie Dercksenbowled · Rabeya Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Rabeya Khan | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 18.18 |
 |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 10% to 73% during the match (South Africa: 28% to 90%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Shorna Akter · b Nahida Akter |
| 56 |
| 71 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 78.87 |
| Sinalo Jaftabowled · Fahima Khatun 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Fahima Khatun | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 30.77 |
|---|
 Chloe Tryonrun out · Ritu Moni · Nahida Akter6 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Ritu Moni | 62 | 69 | 6 | 1 | 89.86 |
|---|
| Nadine de Klerknot out 4 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 37* | 29 | 4 | 1 | 127.59 |
|---|
| Masabata Klaasnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 10* | 13 | 1 | 0 | 76.92 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marufa Akter0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 6.75 | 1 | 0 |
 Nahida Akter1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.3 | 1 | 44 | 2 | 4.63 | 0 | 0 |
| Rabeya Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 48 | 1 | 4.80 | 0 | 0 |
 Fahima Khatun0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 51 | 1 | 5.10 | 0 | 1 |
| Ritu Moni1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 29 | 1 | 2.90 | 1 | 0 |
| Shorna Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Sobhana Mostary0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-3 (Tazmin Brits, 1.1) · 2-58 (Laura Wolvaardt, 15.0) · 3-62 (Anne Bosch, 15.2) · 4-64 (Annerie Dercksen, 18.1) · 5-78 (Sinalo Jafta, 22.1) · 6-163 (Marizanne Kapp, 40.2) · 7-198 (Chloe Tryon, 44.5)
Recorded target: 233 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 3/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 7/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 9/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 13/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 17/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 22/1 |
| 8 | 8 | 30/1 |
| 9 | 8 | 38/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 39/1 |
| 11 | 7 | 46/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 47/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 53/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 55/1 |
| 15 | 3 | 58/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 62/3 |
| 17 | 1 | 63/3 |
| 18 | 1 | 64/3 |
| 19 | 5 | 69/4 |
| 20 | 2 | 71/4 |
| 21 | 3 | 74/4 |
| 22 | 4 | 78/4 |
| 23 | 3 | 81/5 |
| 24 | 4 | 85/5 |
| 25 | 4 | 89/5 |
| 26 | 3 | 92/5 |
| 27 | 12 | 104/5 |
| 28 | 3 | 107/5 |
| 29 | 7 | 114/5 |
| 30 | 4 | 118/5 |
| 31 | 2 | 120/5 |
| 32 | 7 | 127/5 |
| 33 | 6 | 133/5 |
| 34 | 0 | 133/5 |
| 35 | 6 | 139/5 |
| 36 | 2 | 141/5 |
| 37 | 3 | 144/5 |
| 38 | 3 | 147/5 |
| 39 | 3 | 150/5 |
| 40 | 12 | 162/5 |
| 41 | 2 | 164/6 |
| 42 | 8 | 172/6 |
| 43 | 8 | 180/6 |
| 44 | 16 | 196/6 |
| 45 | 2 | 198/7 |
| 46 | 3 | 201/7 |
| 47 | 11 | 212/7 |
| 48 | 8 | 220/7 |
| 49 | 5 | 225/7 |
| 50 | 10 | 235/7 |
Sharmin Akhter: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fahima Khatun: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marizanne Kapp: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Fargana Hoque: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chloe Tryon: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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