Nordic T20 Cup · 2025 · Men

DenmarkversusNorway

14 Jun 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Norway won by 9 wickets

Denmark20.0 overs180/7 Norway17.3 overs181/1 Koge Cricket Club ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Denmark more likely to win

56%Denmark44%Norway

Why

In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Denmark won 2 and Norway won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Norway rate stronger than Denmark (1,529 vs 1,473 on our results rating)
Denmark are playing at home in Denmark

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Denmark started on 54%; Denmark batted first.

Denmark’s chance of winning (%) · Norway is the rest

Denmark's chances ranged from 0% to 82% during the match (Norway: 18% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.3: Ahmadullah Shinwari to Abdul Hashim, Abdul Hashim out. Norway up from 40% to 50%.
2nd inns 2.2: Delawar Khan to Ibrahim Rahimi, Ibrahim Rahimi out. Denmark up from 68% to 78%.
2nd inns 12.3: E Karimi to Walid Ghauri, four by Walid Ghauri. Norway up from 70% to 80%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Denmark180/7 Norway181/1

Innings 1

Denmark

180/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Denmark batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Musa Shaheencaught · Ahmadullah Shinwari · Qamar Mushtaque 1 fours · 4 sixes	caught · Ahmadullah Shinwari · b Qamar Mushtaque	45	30	1	4	150.00
Abdul Hashmilbw · Ahmadullah Shinwari 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Ahmadullah Shinwari	0	2	0	0	0.00
Hamid Shahlbw · Qamar Mushtaque 4 fours · 1 sixes	lbw · b Qamar Mushtaque	45	33	4	1	136.36
Saif Ahmadcaught · Walid Ghauri · Ahmadullah Shinwari 0 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Walid Ghauri · b Ahmadullah Shinwari	25	18	0	2	138.89
Taranjit Bharajcaught · Vinay Ravi · Ahmadullah Shinwari 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Vinay Ravi · b Ahmadullah Shinwari	33	24	4	1	137.50

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Vinay Ravi0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	24	1	8.00	0	1
Ahmadullah Shinwari0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	28	3	7.00	3	1
Ankit Gupta0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	34	0	11.33	0	0
Qamar Mushtaque0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	2	5.00	2	0
AJ Parmar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	29	0	9.67	0	0
D Abeyrathna0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	31	0	15.50	0	0
Ibrahim Rahimi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	8	1	8.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	4	13/1
3	4	17/1
4	13	30/1
5	6	36/1
6	12	48/1
7	7	55/1
8	15	70/1
9	12	82/1
10	4	86/2
11	13	99/2
12	2	101/3
13	10	111/3
14	6	117/3
15	16	133/3
16	9	142/3
17	15	157/3
18	3	160/5
19	12	172/6
20	8	180/7

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