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Photo: A Cricket Premi
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New Zealand Women tour of India · 2024/25 · Women
27 Oct 2024 · ODI
Motera Stadium, Ahmedabad · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 25%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Suzie Batescaught and bowled · Radha Yadav8 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Radha Yadav | 58 | 70 | 8 | 0 | 82.86 |
| Georgia Plimmercaught · Radha Yadav · Deepti Sharma 6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Radha Yadav · b Deepti Sharma | 41 | 50 | 6 | 1 | 82.00 |
| Lauren Downrun out · Priya Mishra · Priya Mishra 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Priya Mishra | 3 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 15.79 |
 Sophie Devinecaught · Jemimah Rodrigues · Radha Yadav7 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jemimah Rodrigues · b Radha Yadav | 79 | 86 | 7 | 1 | 91.86 |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 25% to 100% during the match (India: 0% to 75%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Radha Yadav · b Priya Mishra |
| 8 |
| 15 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 53.33 |
 Maddy Greencaught · Arundhati Reddy · Radha Yadav5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Arundhati Reddy · b Radha Yadav | 42 | 41 | 5 | 0 | 102.44 |
|---|
| Izzy Gazestumped · Yastika Bhatia · Deepti Sharma 2 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Yastika Bhatia · b Deepti Sharma | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 122.22 |
|---|
| Jess Kerrnot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 12* | 6 | 2 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
 Lea Tahuhucaught · Deepti Sharma · Radha Yadav0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Deepti Sharma · b Radha Yadav | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Eden Carsonbowled · Saima Thakor 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Saima Thakor | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Fran Jonasnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 1 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saima Thakor0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 58 | 1 | 5.80 | 1 | 0 |
| Arundhati Reddy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 52 | 0 | 5.20 | 0 | 0 |
 Deepti Sharma3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 3 | 30 | 2 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Priya Mishra1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 49 | 1 | 4.90 | 0 | 0 |
 Radha Yadav0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 69 | 4 | 6.90 | 0 | 1 |
1-87 (Georgia Plimmer, 15.3) · 2-98 (Lauren Down, 20.5) · 3-114 (Suzie Bates, 26.2) · 4-139 (Brooke Halliday, 31.3) · 5-221 (Maddy Green, 45.2) · 6-239 (Izzy Gaze, 47.5) · 7-245 (Sophie Devine, 48.2) · 8-245 (Lea Tahuhu, 48.3) · 9-252 (Eden Carson, 49.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 17/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 23/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 28/0 |
| 6 | 0 | 28/0 |
| 7 | 3 | 31/0 |
| 8 | 5 | 36/0 |
| 9 | 5 | 41/0 |
| 10 | 5 | 46/0 |
| 11 | 7 | 53/0 |
| 12 | 14 | 67/0 |
| 13 | 8 | 75/0 |
| 14 | 4 | 79/0 |
| 15 | 7 | 86/0 |
| 16 | 1 | 87/1 |
| 17 | 3 | 90/1 |
| 18 | 0 | 90/1 |
| 19 | 5 | 95/1 |
| 20 | 2 | 97/1 |
| 21 | 2 | 99/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 101/2 |
| 23 | 6 | 107/2 |
| 24 | 4 | 111/2 |
| 25 | 3 | 114/2 |
| 26 | 0 | 114/2 |
| 27 | 6 | 120/3 |
| 28 | 9 | 129/3 |
| 29 | 6 | 135/3 |
| 30 | 2 | 137/3 |
| 31 | 2 | 139/3 |
| 32 | 0 | 139/4 |
| 33 | 8 | 147/4 |
| 34 | 8 | 155/4 |
| 35 | 4 | 159/4 |
| 36 | 4 | 163/4 |
| 37 | 3 | 166/4 |
| 38 | 4 | 170/4 |
| 39 | 4 | 174/4 |
| 40 | 5 | 179/4 |
| 41 | 12 | 191/4 |
| 42 | 4 | 195/4 |
| 43 | 5 | 200/4 |
| 44 | 4 | 204/4 |
| 45 | 13 | 217/4 |
| 46 | 10 | 227/5 |
| 47 | 9 | 236/5 |
| 48 | 3 | 239/6 |
| 49 | 8 | 247/8 |
| 50 | 12 | 259/9 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Devine: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Radha Yadav: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shafali Verma: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Suzie Bates: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Lea Tahuhu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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