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Photo: A Cricket Premi
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New Zealand Women tour of India · 2024/25 · Women
27 Oct 2024 · ODI
Motera Stadium, Ahmedabad · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 25%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shafali Vermalbw · Jess Kerr2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jess Kerr | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 122.22 |
 Smriti Mandhanacaught · Georgia Plimmer · Lea Tahuhu0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Georgia Plimmer · b Lea Tahuhu | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Yastika Bhatiacaught · Izzy Gaze · Lea Tahuhu 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Izzy Gaze · b Lea Tahuhu | 12 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 80.00 |
 Harmanpreet Kaurcaught · Eden Carson · Sophie Devine1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Eden Carson · b Sophie Devine | 24 | 35 |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 25% to 100% during the match (India: 0% to 75%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 68.57 |
 Jemimah Rodriguescaught · Izzy Gaze · Sophie Devine2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Izzy Gaze · b Sophie Devine | 17 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 60.71 |
|---|
| Tejal Hasabnisbowled · Eden Carson 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Eden Carson | 15 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 39.47 |
|---|
 Deepti Sharmacaught · Izzy Gaze · Lea Tahuhu1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Izzy Gaze · b Lea Tahuhu | 15 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 65.22 |
|---|
| Arundhati Reddycaught · Izzy Gaze · Eden Carson 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Izzy Gaze · b Eden Carson | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
|---|
 Radha Yadavcaught · Lauren Down · Sophie Devine5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lauren Down · b Sophie Devine | 48 | 64 | 5 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Saima Thakorcaught · Suzie Bates · Jess Kerr 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Suzie Bates · b Jess Kerr | 29 | 54 | 3 | 0 | 53.70 |
|---|
| Priya Mishranot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 9 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lea Tahuhu1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 42 | 3 | 4.20 | 3 | 0 |
| Jess Kerr0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 49 | 2 | 4.90 | 2 | 1 |
| Fran Jonas2 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 3.30 | 3 | 0 |
 Sophie Devine0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.1 | 0 | 27 | 3 | 3.77 | 0 | 0 |
| Eden Carson2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 32 | 2 | 3.20 | 1 | 0 |
1-5 (Smriti Mandhana, 0.4) · 2-19 (Shafali Verma, 3.3) · 3-26 (Yastika Bhatia, 5.0) · 4-64 (Jemimah Rodrigues, 13.3) · 5-77 (Harmanpreet Kaur, 17.1) · 6-100 (Tejal Hasabnis, 24.3) · 7-102 (Deepti Sharma, 26.0) · 8-108 (Arundhati Reddy, 27.0) · 9-178 (Saima Thakor, 44.0) · 10-183 (Radha Yadav, 47.1)
Recorded target: 260 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/1 |
| 2 | 6 | 11/1 |
| 3 | 6 | 17/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 22/2 |
| 5 | 4 | 26/3 |
| 6 | 2 | 28/3 |
| 7 | 6 | 34/3 |
| 8 | 2 | 36/3 |
| 9 | 1 | 37/3 |
| 10 | 10 | 47/3 |
| 11 | 7 | 54/3 |
| 12 | 3 | 57/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 62/3 |
| 14 | 8 | 70/4 |
| 15 | 5 | 75/4 |
| 16 | 2 | 77/4 |
| 17 | 0 | 77/4 |
| 18 | 2 | 79/5 |
| 19 | 0 | 79/5 |
| 20 | 7 | 86/5 |
| 21 | 4 | 90/5 |
| 22 | 5 | 95/5 |
| 23 | 3 | 98/5 |
| 24 | 2 | 100/5 |
| 25 | 0 | 100/6 |
| 26 | 2 | 102/7 |
| 27 | 6 | 108/8 |
| 28 | 5 | 113/8 |
| 29 | 3 | 116/8 |
| 30 | 7 | 123/8 |
| 31 | 0 | 123/8 |
| 32 | 6 | 129/8 |
| 33 | 9 | 138/8 |
| 34 | 4 | 142/8 |
| 35 | 5 | 147/8 |
| 36 | 1 | 148/8 |
| 37 | 4 | 152/8 |
| 38 | 3 | 155/8 |
| 39 | 3 | 158/8 |
| 40 | 7 | 165/8 |
| 41 | 4 | 169/8 |
| 42 | 0 | 169/8 |
| 43 | 2 | 171/8 |
| 44 | 7 | 178/9 |
| 45 | 1 | 179/9 |
| 46 | 1 | 180/9 |
| 47 | 3 | 183/9 |
| 48 | 0 | 183/10 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Devine: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Radha Yadav: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shafali Verma: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Suzie Bates: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Lea Tahuhu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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