**Lord's**
Photo: Yorkspotter
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Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

MiddlesexversusGlamorgan

6 Jun 2024 · T20

Lord's · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Glamorgan won by 3 wickets

Middlesex20.0 overs173/10 Glamorgan18.2 overs177/7 Lord's ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Middlesex started on 48%; Middlesex batted first.

Middlesex’s chance of winning (%) · Glamorgan is the rest

Middlesex's chances ranged from 0% to 87% during the match (Glamorgan: 13% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.1: NB Cornwell to EJ Byrom, EJ Byrom out. Middlesex up from 48% to 63%.
2nd inns 9.6: JM De Caires to CA Ingram, CA Ingram out. Middlesex up from 22% to 34%.
2nd inns 13.5: RF Higgins to CB Cooke, six by CB Cooke. Glamorgan up from 71% to 80%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Middlesex chose to bat
match referees: DA Cosker
umpires: ID Blackwell, NJ Llong

Match history & source

On 6 Jun 2024, Middlesex played Glamorgan at Lord's. Recorded result: Glamorgan won by 3 wickets.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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