Chennai Super KingsversusGujarat Titans

26 Apr 2026 · T20

MA Chidambaram Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Gujarat Titans won by 8 wickets

Chennai Super Kings20.0 overs158/7 Gujarat Titans16.4 overs162/2 MA Chidambaram Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Chennai Super Kings started on 49%; Chennai Super Kings batted first.

Chennai Super Kings’s chance of winning (%) · Gujarat Titans is the rest

Chennai Super Kings's chances ranged from 0% to 56% during the match (Gujarat Titans: 44% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.3: K Rabada to SV Samson, SV Samson out. Gujarat Titans up from 49% to 60%.
3.6: K Rabada to Urvil Patel, Urvil Patel out. Gujarat Titans up from 58% to 70%.
4.4: Mohammed Siraj to SN Khan, SN Khan out. Gujarat Titans up from 71% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.