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Gulf T20I Championship · 2024/25 · Men
14 Dec 2024 · T20
Qatar more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Oman started on 32%; Oman batted first.
Oman's chances ranged from 31% to 100% during the match (Qatar: 0% to 69%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imal Liyanagecaught · Aamir Kaleem · Jay Odedra 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aamir Kaleem · b Jay Odedra | 22 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 129.41 |
| Saqlain Arshadcaught · Mohammad Nadeem · Wasim Ali 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Nadeem · b Wasim Ali | 28 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 140.00 |
| Mohammad Ahnaffbowled · Aamir Kaleem 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Aamir Kaleem | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Muhammad Tanveercaught · Mohammad Nadeem · Wasim Ali 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mohammad Nadeem · b Wasim Ali | 24 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 104.35 |
| Muhammad Asimcaught · Mohammad Nadeem · Muzahir Raza 6 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Mohammad Nadeem · b Muzahir Raza | 63 | 28 | 6 | 3 | 225.00 |
| Mohammed Rizlanbowled · Aamir Kaleem 1 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| bowled · b Aamir Kaleem |
| 12 |
| 13 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 92.31 |
| Ikramullah Khancaught · Sufyan Mehmood · Aamir Kaleem 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sufyan Mehmood · b Aamir Kaleem | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Mujeeb Ur Rehmancaught · Mohammad Nadeem · Shakeel Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Nadeem · b Shakeel Ahmed | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Amir Farooqnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 8 | 0 | 0 | 62.50 |
|---|
| Mohammed Nadeemnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakeel Ahmed0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 8.50 | 1 | 2 |
| Muzahir Raza0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 16.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Mohammad Nadeem0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Jay Odedra0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Aamir Kaleem0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 3 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Sufyan Mehmood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Wasim Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 7.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-49 (Imal Liyanage, 4.3) · 2-52 (Mohammad Ahnaff, 5.4) · 3-71 (Saqlain Arshad, 9.3) · 4-88 (Muhammad Tanveer, 11.3) · 5-113 (Mohammed Rizlan, 14.4) · 6-113 (Ikramullah Khan, 14.5) · 7-117 (Mujeeb Ur Rehman, 16.0) · 8-165 (Muhammad Asim, 19.4)
Recorded target: 205 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 15 | 23/0 |
| 3 | 12 | 35/0 |
| 4 | 14 | 49/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 51/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 53/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 56/2 |
| 8 | 9 | 65/2 |
| 9 | 5 | 70/2 |
| 10 | 3 | 73/3 |
| 11 | 13 | 86/3 |
| 12 | 4 | 90/4 |
| 13 | 5 | 95/4 |
| 14 | 16 | 111/4 |
| 15 | 3 | 114/6 |
| 16 | 3 | 117/7 |
| 17 | 5 | 122/7 |
| 18 | 11 | 133/7 |
| 19 | 18 | 151/7 |
| 20 | 18 | 169/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.