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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Asia & EAP Qualifier · 2025/26 · Men
16 Oct 2025 · T20
Recorded result
United Arab Emirates more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Japan started on 37%; Japan batted first.
Japan's chances ranged from 0% to 43% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 58% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendel Kadowaki-Flemingcaught · Muhammad Farooq · Haider Ali 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Muhammad Farooq · b Haider Ali | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
| Abhishek Anandrun out · Muhammad Farooq · Haider Ali 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Muhammad Farooq | 10 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 62.50 |
| Esam Rahmanbowled · Haider Ali 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Haider Ali | 23 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 88.46 |
| B Ito-Davisbowled · Haider Ali 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Haider Ali | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
| S Ravichandrancaught · Rahul Chopra · Zahid Ali 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rahul Chopra · b Zahid Ali | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| bowled · b D Parashar |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 66.67 |
| D Suzukicaught · Waseem Muhammad · Muhammad Arfan 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Waseem Muhammad · b Muhammad Arfan | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Ibrahim Takahashicaught · Rahul Chopra · Muhammad Arfan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rahul Chopra · b Muhammad Arfan | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| W Miyauchinot out 3 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 45* | 32 | 3 | 2 | 140.63 |
|---|
| S Sugaya-Slaterlbw · Junaid Siddique 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Junaid Siddique | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Abdul Samad (2)not out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 11* | 13 | 1 | 0 | 84.62 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junaid Siddique0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 2 | 0 |
| D Parashar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Haider Ali0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 3 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Zahid Ali0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 7.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Muhammad Arfan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Muhammad Farooq0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-16 (Abhishek Anand, 3.1) · 2-17 (Kendel Kadowaki-Fleming, 3.4) · 3-25 (B Ito-Davis, 6.0) · 4-26 (S Ravichandran, 6.2) · 5-35 (Charlie Hara-Hinze, 7.4) · 6-44 (D Suzuki, 8.3) · 7-52 (Ibrahim Takahashi, 10.2) · 8-58 (Esam Rahman, 11.3) · 9-74 (S Sugaya-Slater, 14.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 16/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 19/2 |
| 5 | 3 | 22/2 |
| 6 | 3 | 25/3 |
| 7 | 4 | 29/4 |
| 8 | 12 | 41/5 |
| 9 | 5 | 46/6 |
| 10 | 6 | 52/6 |
| 11 | 2 | 54/7 |
| 12 | 6 | 60/8 |
| 13 | 5 | 65/8 |
| 14 | 8 | 73/8 |
| 15 | 1 | 74/9 |
| 16 | 5 | 79/9 |
| 17 | 6 | 85/9 |
| 18 | 9 | 94/9 |
| 19 | 14 | 108/9 |
| 20 | 8 | 116/9 |
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
