**St George's Park, Gqeberha**
Photo: The original uploader was PaddyBriggs at English Wikipedia.
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2024/25 · Men

Sunrisers Eastern CapeversusPretoria Capitals

22 Jan 2025 · T20

St George's Park, Gqeberha · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sunrisers Eastern Cape won by 52 runs

Sunrisers Eastern Cape20.0 overs149/7 Pretoria Capitals16.3 overs97/10 St George's Park, Gqeberha ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sunrisers Eastern Cape started on 58%; Sunrisers Eastern Cape batted first.

Sunrisers Eastern Cape’s chance of winning (%) · Pretoria Capitals is the rest

Sunrisers Eastern Cape's chances ranged from 18% to 100% during the match (Pretoria Capitals: 0% to 82%).

Biggest swings

0.2: JP Behrendorff to Z Crawley, Z Crawley out. Pretoria Capitals up from 43% to 57%.
2nd inns 4.4: M Jansen to K Verreynne, K Verreynne out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 72% to 88%.
2nd inns 10.3: LA Dawson to MJ Ackerman, MJ Ackerman out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 68% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sunrisers Eastern Cape149/7 Pretoria Capitals97/10

Innings 1