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Photo: Nelsonpubliclibraries
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand · 2024/25 · Men
2 Jan 2025 · T20
Saxton Oval, Nelson · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 22%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 21% to 98% during the match (New Zealand: 2% to 80%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankacaught · Mitchell Hay · Matt Henry 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mitchell Hay · b Matt Henry | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 116.67 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Michael Bracewell · Mitchell Santner 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Michael Bracewell · b Mitchell Santner | 22 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 137.50 |
| Kushal Janith Pereracaught · Rachin Ravindra · Daryl Mitchell 13 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Rachin Ravindra · b Daryl Mitchell | 101 | 46 | 13 | 4 | 219.57 |
| Avishka Fernandolbw · Jacob Duffy 1 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Jacob Duffy | 17 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 141.67 |
| Charith Asalankacaught · Glenn Phillips · Zakary Foulkes 1 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Glenn Phillips · b Zakary Foulkes | 46 | 24 | 1 |
| 5 |
| 191.67 |
| Bhanuka Rajapaksanot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 5 | 1 | 0 | 120.00 |
|---|
| Chamindu Wickramasinghenot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 6 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 4 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matt Henry0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 47 | 1 | 11.75 | 1 | 0 |
 Jacob Duffy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 7.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Zakary Foulkes0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 52 | 1 | 13.00 | 2 | 1 |
| Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Bracewell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 11.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Glenn Phillips0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Daryl Mitchell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-24 (Pathum Nissanka, 2.5) · 2-42 (Kusal Mendis, 5.0) · 3-83 (Avishka Fernando, 9.2) · 4-183 (Charith Asalanka, 16.5) · 5-207 (Kushal Janith Perera, 18.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 12 | 24/1 |
| 4 | 12 | 36/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 42/2 |
| 6 | 7 | 49/2 |
| 7 | 10 | 59/2 |
| 8 | 9 | 68/2 |
| 9 | 15 | 83/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 85/3 |
| 11 | 9 | 94/3 |
| 12 | 17 | 111/3 |
| 13 | 12 | 123/3 |
| 14 | 8 | 131/3 |
| 15 | 22 | 153/3 |
| 16 | 14 | 167/3 |
| 17 | 16 | 183/4 |
| 18 | 23 | 206/4 |
| 19 | 6 | 212/5 |
| 20 | 6 | 218/5 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
