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Photo: Nelsonpubliclibraries
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand · 2024/25 · Men
2 Jan 2025 · T20
Saxton Oval, Nelson · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 22%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 21% to 98% during the match (New Zealand: 2% to 80%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Robinsoncaught · PHKD Mendis · Binura Fernando 2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · PHKD Mendis · b Binura Fernando | 37 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 176.19 |
 Rachin Ravindrabowled · Charith Asalanka5 fours · 4 sixes | bowled · b Charith Asalanka | 69 | 39 | 5 | 4 | 176.92 |
| Mark Chapmancaught · Pathum Nissanka · Charith Asalanka 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Pathum Nissanka · b Charith Asalanka | 9 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 180.00 |
| Glenn Phillipscaught · Pathum Nissanka · Charith Asalanka 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Pathum Nissanka · b Charith Asalanka | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Chamindu Wickramasinghe · Nuwan Thushara1 fours · 4 sixes |
| caught · Chamindu Wickramasinghe · b Nuwan Thushara |
| 35 |
| 17 |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 205.88 |
| Mitchell Haybowled · Wanindu Hasaranga 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Michael Bracewellcaught · Charith Asalanka · Wanindu Hasaranga 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Charith Asalanka · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnernot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 14* | 10 | 0 | 1 | 140.00 |
|---|
| Zakary Foulkesnot out 2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 21* | 13 | 2 | 1 | 161.54 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chamindu Wickramasinghe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Nuwan Thushara0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 8.25 | 2 | 1 |
| Binura Fernando0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 10.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 11.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Wanindu Hasaranga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 9.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Charith Asalanka0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 50 | 3 | 12.50 | 2 | 0 |
1-81 (Tim Robinson, 7.2) · 2-94 (Mark Chapman, 8.4) · 3-112 (Glenn Phillips, 10.3) · 4-129 (Rachin Ravindra, 12.2) · 5-168 (Mitchell Hay, 15.1) · 6-170 (Michael Bracewell, 15.5) · 7-170 (Daryl Mitchell, 16.2)
Recorded target: 219 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 11/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 16/0 |
| 3 | 18 | 34/0 |
| 4 | 11 | 45/0 |
| 5 | 9 | 54/0 |
| 6 | 9 | 63/0 |
| 7 | 17 | 80/0 |
| 8 | 5 | 85/1 |
| 9 | 11 | 96/2 |
| 10 | 12 | 108/2 |
| 11 | 6 | 114/3 |
| 12 | 14 | 128/3 |
| 13 | 8 | 136/4 |
| 14 | 7 | 143/4 |
| 15 | 25 | 168/4 |
| 16 | 2 | 170/6 |
| 17 | 7 | 177/7 |
| 18 | 6 | 183/7 |
| 19 | 14 | 197/7 |
| 20 | 14 | 211/7 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
