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Kwibuka Women's Twenty20 Tournament · 2024 · Women
5 Jun 2024 · T20
Gahanga International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Uganda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Uganda started on 59%; Uganda batted first.
Uganda's chances ranged from 41% to 99% during the match (Rwanda: 1% to 59%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janet Mbabazilbw · Henriette Ishimwe 3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Henriette Ishimwe | 13 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 81.25 |
| Immaculate Nakisuuyibowled · Rosine Irera 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Rosine Irera | 25 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 80.65 |
| Kevin Awinocaught · Marie Bimenyimana · A Ikuzwe 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marie Bimenyimana · b A Ikuzwe | 5 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Stephanie Nampiinacaught and bowled · A Ikuzwe 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b A Ikuzwe | 13 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 61.90 |
| Prosscovia Alakocaught · Gisele Ishimwe · Henriette Ishimwe 0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Gisele Ishimwe · b Henriette Ishimwe | 17 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 94.44 |
| caught · Geovanis Uwase · b B Murekatete |
| 14 |
| 16 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 87.50 |
| Malisa Ariokotlbw · Henriette Ishimwe 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Henriette Ishimwe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| S Walazabowled · Henriette Ishimwe 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Henriette Ishimwe | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| A Akurutlbw · Henriette Ishimwe 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Henriette Ishimwe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Concy Awekorun out · B Murekatete, Rosine Irera · B Murekatete 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · B Murekatete, Rosine Irera | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 250.00 |
|---|
| L Anyaitnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B Murekatete0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 4.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Rosine Irera0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Henriette Ishimwe0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 5 | 4.25 | 2 | 0 |
| Marie Bimenyimana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| A Ikuzwe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
| I Muhawenimana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-21 (Janet Mbabazi, 4.4) · 2-29 (Kevin Awino, 6.5) · 3-53 (Stephanie Nampiina, 12.0) · 4-59 (Immaculate Nakisuuyi, 13.0) · 5-83 (Prosscovia Alako, 16.5) · 6-83 (Malisa Ariokot, 17.0) · 7-87 (S Walaza, 18.2) · 8-87 (A Akurut, 18.3) · 9-95 (Concy Aweko, 19.1) · 10-100 (Rita Musamali, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 16/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 19/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 21/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 24/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 29/2 |
| 8 | 8 | 37/2 |
| 9 | 8 | 45/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 47/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 50/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 53/3 |
| 13 | 6 | 59/4 |
| 14 | 8 | 67/4 |
| 15 | 1 | 68/4 |
| 16 | 10 | 78/4 |
| 17 | 5 | 83/6 |
| 18 | 3 | 86/6 |
| 19 | 7 | 93/8 |
| 20 | 7 | 100/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.