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South Africa tour of Australia · 2025 · Men
19 Aug 2025 · ODI
Cazalys Stadium, Cairns · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 33%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Travis Headstumped · Ryan Rickelton · Prenelan Subrayen6 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Ryan Rickelton · b Prenelan Subrayen | 27 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 112.50 |
 Mitchell Marshcaught · Ryan Rickelton · Nandre Burger10 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ryan Rickelton · b Nandre Burger | 88 | 96 | 10 | 0 | 91.67 |
 Marnus Labuschagnelbw · Keshav Maharaj0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Keshav Maharaj | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
 Cameron Green |
South Africa's chances ranged from 32% to 100% during the match (Australia: 0% to 68%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Keshav Maharaj |
| 3 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 37.50 |
 Josh Inglisbowled · Keshav Maharaj0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Keshav Maharaj | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 55.56 |
|---|
 Alex Careylbw · Keshav Maharaj0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Keshav Maharaj | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Aaron Hardiebowled · Keshav Maharaj 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Keshav Maharaj | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Ben Dwarshuiscaught · Dewald Brevis · Nandre Burger 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dewald Brevis · b Nandre Burger | 33 | 52 | 3 | 0 | 63.46 |
|---|
| Nathan Ellislbw · Lungi Ngidi 1 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Lungi Ngidi | 14 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 70.00 |
|---|
 Adam Zampabowled · Lungi Ngidi1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lungi Ngidi | 11 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 61.11 |
|---|
 Josh Hazlewoodnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nandre Burger1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 54 | 2 | 6.75 | 2 | 0 |
 Lungi Ngidi0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.5 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 5.79 | 6 | 0 |
| Prenelan Subrayen0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 46 | 1 | 4.60 | 0 | 0 |
 Keshav Maharaj1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 33 | 5 | 3.30 | 1 | 0 |
 Aiden Markram0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 4.38 | 0 | 0 |
1-60 (Travis Head, 7.1) · 2-61 (Marnus Labuschagne, 8.1) · 3-67 (Cameron Green, 10.1) · 4-75 (Josh Inglis, 12.2) · 5-75 (Alex Carey, 12.3) · 6-89 (Aaron Hardie, 16.2) · 7-160 (Ben Dwarshuis, 32.1) · 8-174 (Mitchell Marsh, 36.2) · 9-197 (Nathan Ellis, 40.2) · 10-198 (Adam Zampa, 40.5)
Recorded target: 297 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 24/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 29/0 |
| 5 | 21 | 50/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 53/0 |
| 7 | 7 | 60/0 |
| 8 | 1 | 61/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 63/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 67/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 70/3 |
| 12 | 5 | 75/3 |
| 13 | 0 | 75/5 |
| 14 | 4 | 79/5 |
| 15 | 4 | 83/5 |
| 16 | 6 | 89/5 |
| 17 | 4 | 93/6 |
| 18 | 1 | 94/6 |
| 19 | 4 | 98/6 |
| 20 | 5 | 103/6 |
| 21 | 6 | 109/6 |
| 22 | 7 | 116/6 |
| 23 | 5 | 121/6 |
| 24 | 3 | 124/6 |
| 25 | 2 | 126/6 |
| 26 | 7 | 133/6 |
| 27 | 3 | 136/6 |
| 28 | 6 | 142/6 |
| 29 | 11 | 153/6 |
| 30 | 2 | 155/6 |
| 31 | 2 | 157/6 |
| 32 | 3 | 160/6 |
| 33 | 1 | 161/7 |
| 34 | 2 | 163/7 |
| 35 | 5 | 168/7 |
| 36 | 6 | 174/7 |
| 37 | 0 | 174/8 |
| 38 | 6 | 180/8 |
| 39 | 5 | 185/8 |
| 40 | 11 | 196/8 |
| 41 | 2 | 198/10 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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