PakistanversusBangladesh

28 May 2025 · T20

Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 37 runs

Pakistan20.0 overs201/7 Bangladesh19.2 overs164/10 Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

48%Pakistan52%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than Pakistan (1,612 vs 1,462 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Pakistan won 9 and Bangladesh won 1
Pakistan are playing at home in Pakistan

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 48%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 24% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 76%).

Biggest swings

0.3: Mahedi Hasan to Saim Ayub, Saim Ayub out. Bangladesh up from 52% to 67%.
1.2: Shoriful Islam to Fakhar Zaman, Fakhar Zaman out. Bangladesh up from 64% to 76%.
2nd inns 3.6: Hasan Ali to Tanzid Hasan, Tanzid Hasan out. Pakistan up from 65% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan201/7 Bangladesh164/10

Innings 2

Bangladesh

164/1019.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tanzid Hasanbowled · Hasan Ali 2 fours · 3 sixes	bowled · b Hasan Ali	31	17	2	3	182.35
Parvez Hossain Emoncaught · Haris Rauf · Hasan Ali 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Haris Rauf · b Hasan Ali	4	5	1	0	80.00
Litton Dascaught · Fakhar Zaman · Shadab Khan 1 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Fakhar Zaman · b Shadab Khan	48	30	1	3	160.00
Tawhid Hridoylbw · Khushdil Shah 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Khushdil Shah	17	22	1	0	77.27

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Fahim Ashraf0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	18	1	6.00	0
Hasan Ali0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.2	30	5	9.00	1
Abrar Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	35	0	8.75	0
Haris Rauf0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	36	0	12.00	0
Shadab Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	2	6.50	0
Khushdil Shah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	6	1	6.00	0
Salman Ali Agha0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	12	1	12.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	11	11/0
2	3	14/1
3	15	29/1
4	8	37/2
5	3	40/2
6	5	45/2
7	6	51/2
8	10	61/2
9	9	70/2
10	5	75/2
11	17	92/2
12	8	100/3
13	6	106/4
14	12	118/5
15	5	123/5
16	3	126/6
17	15	141/6
18	15	156/8
19	4	160/9
20	4	164/10

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