NepalversusPapua New Guinea

12 Mar 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Nepal won by 85 runs

Nepal20.0 overs198/6 Papua New Guinea16.0 overs113/10 Mission Road Ground, Mong Kok, Hong Kong ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Nepal more likely to win

56%Nepal44%Papua New Guinea

Why

In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Nepal won 4 and Papua New Guinea won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, Papua New Guinea rate stronger than Nepal (1,558 vs 1,538 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nepal started on 54%; Nepal batted first.

Nepal’s chance of winning (%) · Papua New Guinea is the rest

Nepal's chances ranged from 46% to 100% during the match (Papua New Guinea: 0% to 54%).

Biggest swings

7.3: J Kariko to B Bhandari, B Bhandari out. Papua New Guinea up from 26% to 34%.
2nd inns 2.6: Pratis GC to TP Ura, TP Ura out. Nepal up from 66% to 76%.
2nd inns 3.2: RK Paudel to A Vala, S Bau out. Nepal up from 75% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nepal198/6 Papua New Guinea113/10

Innings 1

Nepal

198/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Nepal batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Kushal Bhurtelcaught · John Kariko · Norman Vanua 4 fours · 4 sixes	caught · John Kariko · b Norman Vanua	59	39	4	4	151.28
Binod Bhandaricaught · Norman Vanua · John Kariko 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Norman Vanua · b John Kariko	27	22	2	1	122.73
Rohit Kumarcaught · Kiplin Doriga · Nosaina Pokana 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kiplin Doriga · b Nosaina Pokana	1	4	0	0	25.00
Aarif Sheikh

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Nosaina Pokana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	1	9.50	1
John Kariko0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	1	9.25	0
Norman Vanua0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	58	1	14.50	0
JWW Gardner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	0	7.67	0
Sese Bau0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	22	0	11.00	0
Assad Vala0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	18	2	6.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	10	19/0
3	8	27/0
4	7	34/0
5	16	50/0
6	7	57/0
7	5	62/0
8	3	65/1
9	4	69/2
10	2	71/3
11	7	78/3
12	8	86/3
13	11	97/3
14	17	114/3
15	13	127/4
16	15	142/4
17	11	153/4
18	8	161/5
19	16	177/6
20	21	198/6

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.