West IndiesversusIreland

27 Jun 2026 · T20

County Ground, Bristol · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Ireland won by 6 wickets

West Indies20.0 overs128/7 Ireland18.1 overs129/4 County Ground, Bristol ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

West Indies more likely to win

65%West Indies35%Ireland

Why

In the last 9 T20 internationals between these sides, West Indies won 8 and Ireland won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, West Indies rate stronger than Ireland (1,606 vs 1,597 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

West Indies started on 62%; West Indies batted first.

West Indies’s chance of winning (%) · Ireland is the rest

West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 69% during the match (Ireland: 31% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.6: AK Maguire to Q Joseph, Q Joseph out. Ireland up from 32% to 42%.
2.4: AN Kelly to SA Campbelle, SA Campbelle out. Ireland up from 31% to 41%.
2nd inns 4.1: A Munisar to GH Lewis, GH Lewis out. West Indies up from 20% to 31%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.