South East StarsversusSouthern Vipers

22 Jun 2024 · T20

The County Ground, Derby · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South East Stars won by 5 runs

South East Stars20.0 overs162/5 Southern Vipers20.0 overs157/9 The County Ground, Derby ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South East Stars started on 49%; South East Stars batted first.

South East Stars’s chance of winning (%) · Southern Vipers is the rest

South East Stars's chances ranged from 45% to 90% during the match (Southern Vipers: 10% to 55%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 10.3: D Gregory to FG Kemp, FG Kemp out. South East Stars up from 59% to 73%.
2nd inns 16.2: BF Smith to CE Dean, six by CE Dean. Southern Vipers up from 25% to 46%.
2nd inns 17.6: MR Corteen-Coleman to LCN Smith, 1 run to LCN Smith. Southern Vipers up from 40% to 55%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.