West IndiesversusSri Lanka

24 Jun 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 4 wickets

West Indies20.0 overs134/8 Sri Lanka18.4 overs137/6 Mahinda Rajapaksa International Cricket Stadium, Sooriyawewa, Hambantota ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

35%West Indies65%Sri Lanka

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than West Indies (1,688 vs 1,547 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, West Indies won 8 and Sri Lanka won 2
Sri Lanka are playing at home in Sri Lanka

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

West Indies started on 32%; West Indies batted first.

West Indies’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 53% during the match (Sri Lanka: 47% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.4: HK Matthews to AC Jayangani, AC Jayangani out. West Indies up from 40% to 51%.
2nd inns 9.1: ASS Fletcher to RMVD Gunaratne, RMVD Gunaratne out. West Indies up from 27% to 37%.
2nd inns 10.4: K Ramharack to WK Dilhari, WK Dilhari out. West Indies up from 27% to 37%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

West Indies134/8 Sri Lanka137/6

Innings 2

Sri Lanka

137/618.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Vishmi Gunaratnecaught · Aaliyah Alleyne · Afy Fletcher 6 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Aaliyah Alleyne · b Afy Fletcher	35	25	6	0	140.00
Chamari Atapattucaught · CS Fraser · Hayley Matthews 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · CS Fraser · b Hayley Matthews	1	8	0	0	12.50
Harshitha Madavibowled · Aaliyah Alleyne 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Aaliyah Alleyne	35	34	3	0	102.94
Kavisha Dilharilbw · Karishma Ramharack 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Karishma Ramharack

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Chinelle Henry0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	11	0	5.50	1	0
Shamilia Connell0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	15	1	7.50	2	0
Hayley Matthews0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	19	1	6.33	0	0
Karishma Ramharack0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	1	7.50	0	0
Qiana Joseph0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	12	0	12.00	0	0
Afy Fletcher0 maidens · 5 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	29	2	7.25	5	1
Aaliyah Alleyne0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	14	1	7.00	2	0
Zaida James0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	0.4	5	0	7.50	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	7	9/0
3	6	15/1
4	7	22/1
5	9	31/1
6	12	43/1
7	6	49/1
8	6	55/1
9	5	60/1
10	10	70/2
11	6	76/3
12	7	83/3
13	12	95/3
14	7	102/4
15	7	109/4
16	3	112/5
17	10	122/6
18	10	132/6
19	5	137/6

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