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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2025 · Men
17 May 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
United States of America more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 66%; United States of America batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smit Patelnot out 12 fours · 4 sixes | not out | 152* | 137 | 12 | 4 | 110.95 |
| Andries Gouscaught · Shreyas Movva · Kaleem Sana 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Kaleem Sana | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Monank Patellbw · Saad Bin Zafar 6 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Saad Bin Zafar | 47 | 44 | 6 | 0 | 106.82 |
| Saiteja Mukkamallacaught · Parveen Kumar (2) · Saad Bin Zafar 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Parveen Kumar (2) · b Saad Bin Zafar | 30 | 45 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Milind Kumarnot out 12 fours · 5 sixes | not out | 115* | 67 | 12 | 5 | 171.64 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 11 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
United States of America's chances ranged from 59% to 100% during the match (Canada: 0% to 41%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleem Sana1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 76 | 1 | 7.60 | 5 | 0 |
| Dillon Heyliger0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 85 | 0 | 9.44 | 4 | 1 |
| Parveen Kumar (2)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 46 | 0 | 7.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Shivam Sharma (3)0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 52 | 0 | 6.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Saad Bin Zafar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 57 | 2 | 5.70 | 1 | 0 |
| Harsh Thaker0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 6.29 | 0 | 0 |
1-12 (Andries Gous, 2.5) · 2-90 (Monank Patel, 15.3) · 3-153 (Saiteja Mukkamalla, 29.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 12/1 |
| 4 | 8 | 20/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 26/1 |
| 6 | 8 | 34/1 |
| 7 | 9 | 43/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 48/1 |
| 9 | 5 | 53/1 |
| 10 | 8 | 61/1 |
| 11 | 6 | 67/1 |
| 12 | 7 | 74/1 |
| 13 | 3 | 77/1 |
| 14 | 6 | 83/1 |
| 15 | 7 | 90/1 |
| 16 | 1 | 91/2 |
| 17 | 3 | 94/2 |
| 18 | 9 | 103/2 |
| 19 | 6 | 109/2 |
| 20 | 5 | 114/2 |
| 21 | 5 | 119/2 |
| 22 | 3 | 122/2 |
| 23 | 3 | 125/2 |
| 24 | 4 | 129/2 |
| 25 | 5 | 134/2 |
| 26 | 3 | 137/2 |
| 27 | 3 | 140/2 |
| 28 | 6 | 146/2 |
| 29 | 7 | 153/2 |
| 30 | 3 | 156/3 |
| 31 | 10 | 166/3 |
| 32 | 9 | 175/3 |
| 33 | 4 | 179/3 |
| 34 | 2 | 181/3 |
| 35 | 7 | 188/3 |
| 36 | 9 | 197/3 |
| 37 | 5 | 202/3 |
| 38 | 7 | 209/3 |
| 39 | 6 | 215/3 |
| 40 | 13 | 228/3 |
| 41 | 4 | 232/3 |
| 42 | 12 | 244/3 |
| 43 | 14 | 258/3 |
| 44 | 10 | 268/3 |
| 45 | 11 | 279/3 |
| 46 | 9 | 288/3 |
| 47 | 12 | 300/3 |
| 48 | 32 | 332/3 |
| 49 | 14 | 346/3 |
| 50 | 15 | 361/3 |
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
