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Photo: Kieran Connellan from Hamilton, New Zealand
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; display framing may vary.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Pakistan tour of New Zealand · 2024/25 · Men
2 Apr 2025 · ODI
Seddon Park, Hamilton · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 62%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Abdullah Shafiquecaught · Daryl Mitchell · William O’Rourke0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b William O’Rourke | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 9.09 |
 Imam-ul-Haqcaught · Daryl Mitchell · Jacob Duffy0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Jacob Duffy | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
 Mohammad Babar Azamcaught · Henry Nicholls · Jacob Duffy0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Henry Nicholls · b Jacob Duffy | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
 |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 51% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 49%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Mitchell Hay · b Ben Sears |
| 5 |
| 27 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 18.52 |
| Salman Ali Aghacaught · Nathan Smith · Ben Sears 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nathan Smith · b Ben Sears | 9 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Tayyab Tahircaught · Ben Sears · Nathan Smith 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Sears · b Nathan Smith | 13 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 44.83 |
|---|
| Fahim Ashrafcaught · Mitchell Hay · Ben Sears 6 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Mitchell Hay · b Ben Sears | 73 | 80 | 6 | 3 | 91.25 |
|---|
| Mohammad Wasimcaught · Mitchell Hay · Ben Sears 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Hay · b Ben Sears | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Haris Raufretired hurt · William O’Rourke0 fours · 0 sixes | retired hurt | 3* | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Akif Javedcaught · Daryl Mitchell · Jacob Duffy 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Jacob Duffy | 8 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 114.29 |
|---|
 Naseem Shahcaught · Mitchell Hay · Ben Sears4 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Mitchell Hay · b Ben Sears | 51 | 44 | 4 | 4 | 115.91 |
|---|
| Sufyan Moqeemnot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 13* | 10 | 1 | 1 | 130.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 13 · wides: 13 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 William O’Rourke1 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 2.38 | 8 | 0 |
 Jacob Duffy1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 35 | 3 | 4.38 | 2 | 0 |
| Ben Sears0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.2 | 0 | 59 | 5 | 6.32 | 1 | 0 |
| Nathan Smith0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 53 | 1 | 5.30 | 1 | 1 |
| Michael Bracewell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 4.83 | 1 | 0 |
1-6 (Abdullah Shafique, 2.4) · 2-7 (Mohammad Babar Azam, 3.1) · 3-9 (Imam-ul-Haq, 5.3) · 4-31 (Salman Ali Agha, 11.1) · 5-32 (Mohammad Rizwan, 11.4) · 6-65 (Tayyab Tahir, 20.4) · 7-72 (Mohammad Wasim, 21.1) · 8-114 (Akif Javed, 28.2) · 9-174 (Fahim Ashraf, 37.4) · 10-208 (Naseem Shah, 41.2)
Recorded target: 293 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 7/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 7/2 |
| 5 | 1 | 8/2 |
| 6 | 2 | 10/3 |
| 7 | 5 | 15/3 |
| 8 | 11 | 26/3 |
| 9 | 0 | 26/3 |
| 10 | 2 | 28/3 |
| 11 | 3 | 31/3 |
| 12 | 1 | 32/5 |
| 13 | 8 | 40/5 |
| 14 | 8 | 48/5 |
| 15 | 1 | 49/5 |
| 16 | 2 | 51/5 |
| 17 | 1 | 52/5 |
| 18 | 5 | 57/5 |
| 19 | 2 | 59/5 |
| 20 | 4 | 63/5 |
| 21 | 9 | 72/6 |
| 22 | 2 | 74/7 |
| 23 | 7 | 81/7 |
| 24 | 11 | 92/7 |
| 25 | 5 | 97/7 |
| 26 | 1 | 98/7 |
| 27 | 10 | 108/7 |
| 28 | 6 | 114/7 |
| 29 | 6 | 120/8 |
| 30 | 1 | 121/8 |
| 31 | 6 | 127/8 |
| 32 | 9 | 136/8 |
| 33 | 5 | 141/8 |
| 34 | 8 | 149/8 |
| 35 | 8 | 157/8 |
| 36 | 8 | 165/8 |
| 37 | 4 | 169/8 |
| 38 | 11 | 180/9 |
| 39 | 12 | 192/9 |
| 40 | 10 | 202/9 |
| 41 | 5 | 207/9 |
| 42 | 1 | 208/10 |
Imam-ul-Haq: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Rhys Mariu: New Zealand Government, Office of the Governor-General · CC BY 4.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Muhammad Abbas: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Abdullah Shafique: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
